Outsider In: Shigeru Ishiba Becomes Japan's New Prime Minister

Pictured from left to right are: the new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba; Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida; and Shinjiro Koizumi, who placed third overall in the recent leadership election.

Published October 24, 2024

The National Diet officially confirmed Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister of Japan, succeeding Fumio Kishida, on October 1. This comes as a result of a tight party leadership election on September 27, where Ishiba won by a margin of only 21 votes.

Ishiba’s candidacy in the 2024 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) election was his fifth and what he deemed his final shot at the country’s top seat. He barely advanced to the runoff round of the election after defeating the young Shinjiro Koizumi, a former environment minister and the son of a previous prime minister, by a margin of 18 votes for second place. In first place with 181 votes was economic security minister Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi had received key endorsements from party veterans such as former prime minister Taro Aso, who had dropped support for Taro Kono (SFS '86), a member of his own intra-party faction, to support her candidacy instead. However, Ishiba ultimately pulled through with 215 votes over Takaichi’s 194. Ishiba, in turn, had earned the support of both former prime minister Yoshihide Suga and the incumbent Kishida. Ishiba represented the more centrist and moderate option compared to the conservative Takaichi.

Ishiba hails from Tottori Prefecture, the least populated of Japan’s 47 prefectures, where his father served as governor. Tottori’s 1st district first elected him to the House of Representatives in 1986. At 29 years old, he was the youngest member in the entire house. However, he faced considerable scrutiny when he left the LDP after it had lost its majority in the Diet for the first time in history, even though he rejoined four years later.

Even after earning his first major cabinet position as Defense Minister in 2007, Ishiba has continued to be an “outsider” to the party. Yet despite constant friction with his fellow lawmakers, Ishiba has managed to remain popular amongst the country’s general public. Ishiba’s victory in this election reflects a shift within the LDP, which has sought to restore confidence from the populace after a series of wide-reaching scandals.

Ishiba is best known as a security and defense policy expert. In the realm of foreign policy, he has broached the idea of establishing an Asian equivalent to NATO, although officials in both the United States and India expressed skepticism to the idea. He appears poised to continue his predecessor’s stance on improving relations with South Korea and maintaining dialogue with China in the face of increased tensions. As a representative of Tottori, Ishiba has also called for revitalization of Japan’s struggling rural areas, which have faced significant economic and population decline.

Ishiba also proposed shifting Japan’s energy policy away from nuclear power, allowing married couples to pick different surnames, and pursuing interest rate hiking during his campaign. However, he has since somewhat walked back most of these proposals, likely to appease the conservatives in his party who opposed his candidacy. His premiership may be characterized by fractured support from within his own party, a legacy of his “outsider” status. 

Ishiba’s first test as Japan’s leader will come on the October 27 snap election he called for in hope that his new administration would be “judged by the people as soon as possible.”