China’s Coercive Power: Gray Zones
Philippine Navy’s BRP Andre Bonifacio and U.S. Coast Guard’s USCGC Stratton conduct joint training with Japan in the South China Sea. (Nara)
A Chinese coast guard vessel rammed two Philippine patrol ships, BRP Cape Engaño and BRP Bagacay, in the contested South China Sea on August 19, escalating long-standing tensions over China’s aggressive militarization of the region. Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesperson Jay Tarriela emphasizes that the Philippine ships were “deliberately ramm[ed],” adding, “[t]his is the biggest structural damage that we have incurred as a result of the dangerous maneuvers carried out by the Chinese Coast Guard.” The collisions tore a one-meter hole in the starboard quarter of BRP Cape Engaño and caused damage to the engine exhaust. The BRP Bagacay sustained a three-foot hole and one-foot dent near the auxiliary engine and 13 damaged stanchion posts. CBS News correspondents were aboard the Cape Engaño when the incident occurred and published their report on September 15.
During the conflict, Beijing and Manila scrambled to stabilize tensions through measures such as the reprovisional arrangement. This allowed resupply missions to a beached warship in the Second Thomas Shoal, which is a submerged reef 104 nautical miles from Palawan, and permitted discussions at the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism. Despite these efforts, attempts to de-escalate the conflict ultimately failed.
Since June 30, 2023, the Chinese military has significantly intensified the presence of its coast guard, maritime militia, and navy within the Philippines’ 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Between August 27 and September 2, the Philippine military tracked over 200 Chinese ships in contested regions of the South China Sea, the highest count recorded in 2024. These contested regions include Mischief Reef, Second Thomas Shoal, and Sabina Shoal, which are all located in the Spratly Islands, along with Scarborough Shoal which lies North of the Spratlys.
China began adopting aggressive, strategic posturing in the mid-1990s, leading to the Mischief Reef incident where Chinese naval vessels fought against a Philippine navy gunboat, straining Philippine-China relations. A few years later, the Chinese military advanced toward the Philippines by continuing its presence in the Second Thomas Shoal. More recently, China has created new flashpoints in the Sabina Shoal, which lies only 75 nautical miles West of Palawan and is deep within the Philippines’ EEZ. Philippine maritime security expert Jay Batongbacal stresses that the Sabina Shoal makes “a good staging ground for vessels that will interfere with Philippine maritime activities.” The Philippines National Security Policy report acknowledges these developments and calls for strengthening the National Task Force in the West Philippine Sea to manage the “changing security environment.” With the majority of the Western Philippine coast encapsulated in China’s 10-dash line, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning defends China’s actions, asserting that the country will continue taking lawful “resolute and forceful measures” to protect its claimed territorial sovereignty.
China unleashed its earlier gray zone operations through repeated incursions into the Philippines’ EEZ and Air Defense Identification Zone, firing water cannons and flashing high-powered lasers. Since then, China’s actions have escalated to frequent ship collisions, attacks on boats using bladed weapons, the seizure of weapons, and the blocking of resupply missions. Another recent confrontation severely injured a PCG sailor, underscoring the growing intensity of altercations. These gray zone tactics aim to coerce and intimidate the Philippines through unarmed conflict while attempting to prevent escalation into more deadly situations.
After repeated incidents, Manila has fortified bilateral relations with regional and Western powers. Japan recently sold military ships to the Philippines to bolster security in the region. Philippine officials have also met with the United States to secure new deals regarding trade, treaties, and weapons. In July, the United States announced plans to expand defense cooperation with Manila and provide $500 million in aid to help modernize their military. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell criticized China’s “dangerous actions threaten[ing] regional peace and stability” and reaffirmed Manila and Washington’s 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, saying it “extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft—including those of its coast guard—anywhere in the South China Sea.”
The South China Sea continues to evolve as a highly contested zone, drawing attention due to the region's strategic importance. Control over key maritime choke points vital to international trade and access to rich natural resources raises the stakes for all countries surrounding China’s supposed claim. While neighboring nations intensify their military posturing in response, the risk of any misstep could have far-reaching consequences for regional and global stability. A month after the collisions, Chinese Lieutenant General He Lei issued a threatening ultimatum at a defense forum, declaring, “We in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will resolutely crush any foreign hostile encroachment on China’s territorial, sovereign and maritime rights.”