Upcoming U.K. General Election Forecasted to Usher the Labour Party Back to Power After 13 Years of Conservative Government

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will face a tough battle to keep his position in the next U.K. general election (Number 10 via Flickr).

Politicians in the United Kingdom are gearing up for a transformative general election in the coming year, though the exact date of the vote remains uncertain. Conservative (Tory) Party leader and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a tough challenge from Keir Starmer, head of the center-left Labour Party, that could end over a decade of Tory rule.

It has been a tumultuous 13 years in power for Britain's center-right Conservative Party. After forming a minority government in 2010, former Prime Minister David Cameron oversaw a period of fiscal austerity, a Scottish Independence referendum in 2014, and the Brexit referendum in 2016.

Cameron, a supporter of remaining in the EU, lost the Brexit vote, leading him to resign as prime minister in early 2016. He was succeeded by Theresa May, who was unable to form a comprehensive plan for the nation to leave the EU amidst Tory infighting. After three years, May was replaced by the flamboyant Boris Johnson, the former foreign minister and mayor of London.

Johnson won a landslide election victory in 2019 and used his mandate to lead the United Kingdom out of the EU and through the COVID-19 pandemic. However, his reputation was tarnished after it was revealed that prominent members of the Tory party, including Johnson himself, participated in gatherings violating lockdown requirements. This eventually led to his 2022 resignation.

Johnson’s successor, Liz Truss, attempted to boost the faltering U.K. economy through deep tax cuts, leading to a market revolt and her resignation in October 2022 after just 49 days in office. 

These events have fuelled a perception that Conservatives are unable to govern, precipitating a deep decline in their standings in the polls. The Conservatives currently trail Labour by 45 to 27 percent, an 18 point gap. Rishi Sunak, former finance minister, replaced Truss as prime minister, promising a return to stability following the chaos of Conservative resignations. Sunak’s major policy initiatives have included a comprehensive trade deal in Northern Ireland and the scrapping of the HS2, a high speed rail line which critics argued was going to disrupt rural communities. 

However, those policies have barely dented the lead amassed by Labour and Starmer. A former head of public prosecutions, Starmer has taken a cautious, localized approach to his campaign. Cognizant that his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn promised radical reforms that critics say stymied Labour’s campaign to beat Johnson in 2019, Starmer has backtracked on several key promises, including scrapping university tuition fees and a £28 billion investment in renewable energy. While these tactics may help Starmer appeal to moderates, his tack to the center has generated strong opposition from his party’s left flank who criticize Labour as lacking vision. As a result, one Brit noted that her vote “would be very much against the Conservative Party rather than a vote in support of Labour.” 

The latest a general election can be called is the end of January 2025. Despite pressure from the opposition, Sunak seems in no rush to call one. The Conservatives have recently lost key by-elections and local elections to Labour and centrist Liberal Democrats, and if polls are to be believed, are on track for an electoral wipeout to Starmer and Labour.

Another positive development for Labour has come from Scotland, where the traditionally-dominant Scottish Labour Party was pushed out of power by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in 2011. With the recent arrest of former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon as part of an investigation in the SNP’s finances, Labor has rapidly risen in the polls of Scottish voters and even won a landslide victory in a by-election against the SNP. The Labour Party’s winning candidate, Michael Shanks, proclaimed that Scotland is “ready for change. They’re ready for a fresh start” under Labour. 
However, the Conservatives say they are prepared for a tough reelection campaign. Rishi Sunak is “entirely confident that we can win the next election” and has traveled the country promoting the Tories’ policies. The next U.K. general election will render a verdict on Sunak and his Conservative predecessors. As of now, British voters seem ready to give Sunak and his Tories the boot.