President Andry Rajoelina Runs for a Third Term in Madagascar

President Andry Rajoelina walking at his inauguration in 2019. (GovernmentZA on Flickr)

Madagascar President Andry Rajoelina is seeking a third term amid civil unrest and accusations of authoritarianism ahead of the November 16 election.

Rajoelina first seized power in 2009 after ousting the incumbent President Marc Ravalomanana in a coup. Forced to revoke his position under international pressure in 2013, Rajoelina returned to national leadership in 2018, defeating Ravalomanana in a runoff marred by irregularities. As the election nears, Rajoelina has cracked down on opposition and stifled dissent, fueling violence in the country. Opposition candidates brought Rajoelina to court following revelations that he acquired dual French nationality in 2014, as dual citizenship is illegal and Rajoelina would be recognized as a French citizen. Still, the courts and electoral commission allowed him to run again.

Opposition parties have also accused Rajoelina of leading an “institutional coup” by installing Rajoelina ally Prime Minister Christian Ntsay after Rajoelina resigned to comply with campaign laws that require candidates to leave government posts. The parties argue that the elevation of Ntsay to the post of interim president will favor Rajoelina in the elections. President of the Senate Herimanana Razafimahefa, who originally declined to succeed Rajoelina in acting capacity, recently changed his mind, claiming he was worried about a political crisis. In return, the Senate deposed Razafimahefa, claiming his change in decision was proof of “mental deficiency.” 

Peaceful protests have spread across the island, met with brutal crackdowns by the government as Rajoelina tightens his grip on power. The United Nations Human Rights Commission expressed concern with the extreme force wielded by security forces to dispel protests, including the use of rubber bullets and tear gas. Two opposition candidates, including Ravlaomanana, were injured by tear gas grenades in recent weeks. In response, the courts delayed the election from November 9 to November 16, with a potential runoff scheduled for November 20.

Despite its large reserves of precious metals and minerals, Madagascar is one of the poorest countries in the world, with 75 percent of the population living in poverty. Per capita income declined by 45 percent between 1960 and 2020, and GDP growth has averaged zero percent per year. Compounding chronic underdevelopment, the island has experienced heatwaves, droughts, and extreme storms due to climate change. Droughts in 2021 led to an extreme famine on the southern half of the island.

Madagascar has suffered from widespread corruption, which Rajoelina has promised to address during both the 2018 campaign and his current bid for re-election. However, various events indicate that corruption continues. Rajoelina’s chief of staff was arrested in London earlier this year on bribery charges, accused of seeking money from a precious stone miner to help procure Madagascar drilling licenses. In April, Rajoelina’s government banned political gatherings and public demonstrations in the name of security but created an exception for sitting officials. Rajoelina has targeted opposition candidates while in power, making him the frontrunner as the election approaches.

Rajoelina is no stranger to controversy. As the island faced a spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, the president released an untested herbal tonic he claimed could prevent and cure COVID, even handing out bottles at public rallies. He also claims to have foiled a 2021 coup attempt, which he has used as a justification to consolidate power and remove military and police officials who could oppose him.

Madagascans worry that Rajoelina will plunge the country into another political crisis. As mayor of Madagascar’s capital, Antananarivo, he led protests that eventually led the military and courts to seize power from Ravalomanana and hand control to Rajoelina. 

The 2018 election involved its controversial claims. Reports surfaced in June that some candidates are being financed by Russian dark money groups and the Wagner Group who have promised political and financial support in exchange for access to the island’s resources. Some analysts believe the Russian groups supported Rajoelina in 2018. 
While Rajoelina is currently expected to win reelection, the race will likely yield a runoff, given the number of candidates running. Besides Ravalomanana, Rajoelina’s direct predecessor Hery Rajaonarimampianina is also running again. As Rajoelina tries to cling to power, the forces that elevated him in 2009 and 2018 could very well be the ones that end his time in politics.