Yemen: The Evolution of an Underreported Crisis
Nearly a year after Saudi Arabia began air strikes on Northern Yemeni rebels, over 21 million Yemenis —80% of Yemen’s population — are in need of aid. This statistic exceeds numbers in Syria, yet stories from Yemen have captured relatively little international attention. Once regarded as an isolated civil conflict, the situation is now popularly referred to as a“proxy war” between Saudi Arabia and Iran. As the conflict evolves, deeply clashing interests perpetuate a destructive humanitarian crisis with no peaceful end in sight.For over ten years, the Houthis, a Zaydi insurgency group in Northern Yemen, have worked to destabilize the central government in pursuit of autonomous ethno-religious territory. Previously opposed to the autocratic leadership of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Houthis supported 2011 political protests inspired by Tunisia’s revolutions. These uprisings spurred Saleh to cede power to a Southern Yemeni, Deputy President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. Hadi’s transitional government headed the well-known “National Dialogue Conference,” which intended to facilitate a peaceful power transition. This diplomatic effort failed to bring stability to Yemen. According to Yemen expert Amat Alsoswa, “those included in the National Dialogue were hand picked by the President” and thus failed to embrace the full range Yemini interests, such as those of the Houthis and Southern Movement activists.
Yemenis take to the streets to protest perceived political abuses.
The exclusive nature of the National Dialogue may well have inspired two traditional rivals, Saleh and the Houthis, to construct a strategic alliance against Hadi and the South. As a result, the many divided groups of Southern Yemen suddenly faced a common enemy in the North. Tensions rose when the Houthis captured Sana’a. Nonetheless, at this point full-scale war still seemed avoidable. Dr. Charles Schmitz, a scholar of Yemen sociology at the Middle East Institute, describes Yemenis as problem-solvers. In his words, “pragmatic arch-enemies can cut a deal amongst themselves” in the name of peace. Why, then, has conflict continued?
Although the “Arab Spring” revolutions may have initially aggravated latent political tensions, today’s conflict is largely shaped by Saudi Arabia’s unusually strong military campaign and accusatory rhetoric regarding Iran’s connection with the Houthis. Saudi intervention appears to be driven by its rivalry with Iran; however, the International Crisis Group (ICG) consistently confirms that Iran plays a relatively minor role in Yemen. It reports, “the balance of external support… is starkly uneven: the Saudi-led coalition lends direct military, financial and political help to anti-Houthi fighters, while Iran operates on a shoestring budget, giving the Houthis political and moral aid but little military and financial assistance.” It appears that the Saudis are conflating Houthi aggression with Iranian hegemony in the Arab world. This portrayal of the Iran-Houthi relationship provides little ground for reconciliation in Yemen.
TheICG emphasizes that Saudi Arabia intervened “in response to its perception that…Washington was turning away or even courting Tehran during nuclear negotiations.” This recent strain on the long-standing Saudi-US alliance renders it unlikely that the US will seriously promote a candid conversation to address regional tensions. Dr. Schmitz underscores a deep “US interest in maintaining the Saudi-US relationship, post-Iran deal.” This alliance appears to take priority over potential dialogue. While these strategic interests shape the war, Amat Alsoswa reminds us, “Yemenis just want to live as human beings like anyone else.” Only through diplomatic dialogue that brings all regional actors to the table will Yemenis finally have peace.