Two Steps Forward, One Step Back in Fight Against ISIS

Danish soldiers help train Iraqi Army. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Jarabulus, a town in northern Syria, may soon be freed from the control of the self-styled Islamic State (ISIS). According to Anadolu, a state-run news site in Turkey, the Turkish Armed Forces have launched a major military offensive to clear the border town, the largest coordinated by Turkey during the Syrian civil war.

Turkey, however, is just one nation that has stepped up its battle against ISIS this summer. Across the Middle East, affected countries and international coalitions have all doubled down on efforts to defeat ISIS.

These aggressive strategies have had mixed success. According to Brett McGurk of the U.S. State Department, international fighters have helped free 47 percent of the Islamic State’s territorial possessions in Iraq. As of late June, an additional 20 percent of Syrian territory has also been liberated since fighting began in 2014.

Particularly significant has been the recovery of a number of oil fields. ISIS had been using the oil drilling resources that were abandoned in the territory they seized to fund their efforts. Now, thanks to the combined pressure of the lost oil fields and advancing international military coalitions, ISIS’ revenue has plummeted.

The Islamic State used to sell 50 tankers a day. “Now, with Iraqi forces getting closer and stepping up airstrikes, Daesh can hardly sell five small tankers,” Abdul Rahman al-Wagga, a provincial councilman from Mosul, told Business Insider.

Despite these major setbacks, the Islamic State has still been a potent force in recent months. The group has successfully perpetrated or inspired a number of deadly terrorist attacks around the world. This list of massacres includes bombings in Baghdad and Istanbul, shootings in Bangladesh and Florida, and the lone driver who killed dozens of people on Bastille Day in Nice, France. These kinds of attacks are likely to continue. Although the losses in income and territory have stretched ISIS thin, the organization is still capable of recruiting and radicalizing people around the world. The State Department’s current estimates suggest that the group has between 18,000 and 22,000 members, a significant decrease from the roughly 33,000 militants ISIS had at its peak in 2014.

But, huge numbers of fighters are most important when waging a ground war and attempting to take or protect territory. Far fewer people are necessary to launch terrorist attacks, which helps explain why ISIS terrorism has remained prolific despite membership losses. Given that the Islamic State still employs random acts of violence, which are difficult to combat with traditional military power, some experts are suggesting that counterinsurgency plans need to center around handicapping ISIS recruitment tools. But,these strategies require a long-term commitment, and returns may be a long time coming.

The Islamic State’s dream of a new caliphate to span the Middle East may no longer seem realistic, even to ISIS officials. However, this recognition of reality has not decreased violence, and is unlikely to do so in the coming months.