The Islamic State in Yemen and the Threat of Civil War

On Friday, Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi presided over the swearing in of the country’s new cabinet. The move came days after an ultimatum issued by Houthi rebels on Oct. 31 demanding the formation of a new cabinet. In light of mounting instability and escalating violence in the country, including a deadly al-Qaeda attack that claimed at least 47 lives in early October, Houthi rebel leaders promised to withdraw fighters from the nation's capital, Sana'a. However, the new consociational, power-sharing, government met staunch opposition from both Houthi rebels and the ruling General People's Congress (GPC).

The UN Security Council imposed sanctions upon Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s former president and GPC leader, along with several Houthi rebel leaders for posing a threat to the stability and peace of the country. Moreover, rebel leaders are obstructing

Yemen’s progress towards political reconciliation. In punitive response, the GPC dismissed President Hadi from leadership of the party after being accused of soliciting UN sanctions against his predecessor, Saleh.

Since September, Houthi militants, belonging to Zaydi Shias from the country’s north, have managed to maintain their hold of towns in the country’s northwest, as well as rapidly seize control of virtually all government buildings and facilities in the nation’s capital.

In mid-August, heeding Houthi leadership calls for massive demonstrations and sit-ins in Sana’a, tens of thousands of supporters took to the streets and demanded the resignation of the Yemeni government, as well as a reversal of fuel subsidy cuts. As protests escalated, and government concessions failed to appease, the atmosphere on the ground took a sharp turn and resulted in a Houthi seizure of the capital on September 21.

Expansion of the Houthi movement into Yemen's Sunni-populated regions has managed to further exacerbate tensions on the ground, as well as garner support for al-Qaeda among some. Local tribes have already begun to increasingly ally themselves with the group in response to current turmoil. Should present conditions persist or escalate, it is feared that the country would begin to completely unravel into atavistic identities along tribal and sectarian lines.

Ansar al-Sharia, Yemeni affiliate of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), claimed responsibility for a number of recent attacks in the country targeting Houthis in recent weeks. Anti-Houthi rallies also continue to take place in the country.

Escalating violence and tensions in the country have become a source of deep concern for the United States and other Western and Gulf states. In addition to political turmoil in Sana’a, regional and Western governments fear the destabilizing effects of the country’s secessionist movement in the south, as well as what is seen as a rise in the prominence and activity of AQAP in light of the Houthi movement. Most recently, AQAP claimed responsibility for the attempted assassination of the US ambassador to Yemen.

Emergence of Official Islamic State Affiliate in Yemen

Early Monday, Yemeni Sunni militants pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. In the short announcement, the speaker cited a statement attributed to the Prophet Muhammad predicting the assembly of an army in Syria, Yemen and Iraq—a commonly cited narration, among several others, employed in an attempt to garner legitimacy by way of the apocalyptic within the Muslim world.

The nature of the group, which refers to itself generically as the “Mujahideen of Yemen”, is presently unclear. It is also not known if, or to what extent, the IS-affiliate is associated with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). A number of experts believe that an IS-AQAP merger or alliance is well within the realm of plausibility given noted support and sympathies for IS fighters within the AQAP—especially since the start of U.S.-led coalition attacks on the group in Syria and Iraq. While the impact of such a franchising move remains uncertain, a full-fledged IS affiliate in Yemen could push the country further into sectarian strife, and work to unleash civil war in the fragile nation.

NOTE: This announcement comes on the heels of a similar pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State just a day earlier from Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. The group is considered the largest, most active militant group in the country, and widely suspected of having been responsible for an attack that killed 31 Egyptian soldiers on Oct. 25.