South Korea watches closely for shift in American foreign policy

Although voters in the United States may not have considered the 2014 midterm elections to be very important, with record low voter turnouts, some countries abroad have been keenly observing the elections and attached great significance to the Republicans taking over the Senate and keeping their majority in the House of Representatives. A major South Korean newspaper, Korea Joongang Daily, reported that the Korean government was concerned about the impact that the Republican victory in the election would have on American foreign policy, specifically with regard to East Asia. Indeed, because the Republicans won over enough seats to become the majority party, a Republican will now be named head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which plays a significant role in the formulation of the United States’ foreign policy. Specifically, South Korea is concerned that the United States will make major adjustments to its policies on  North Korea’s nuclear program and trade in the Asia-Pacific region. Relations between the two Koreas have been strained at best for decades, despite various attempts at reducing tensions. Over time, the South Korean government has in part relied on the United States to assist it in negotiations to downgrade North Korea’s nuclear program, through both bilateral endeavors and the Six Party Talks. However, the issues brought about by Iran’s nuclear program have made it a bigger priority for the American government. As a consequence, South Korea will be watching closely to see how the new Republican majority deals with Iran, as this will also be an indicator of how it will want to deal with North Korea. On Iran, Republicans have established a harsh rhetoric that may make it difficult to strike a deal. Indeed, the Republican Party has adopted a strong stance in favor of nuclear non-proliferation and prefers sanctions over dialogue and compromise. Senator Robert Corker, who is expected to become the next Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is expected to back up this stance and advocate stricter sanctions on Iran once he takes over. If talks with Iran break down or if stricter sanctions are put into place, this may indirectly affect North Korea. In the first case, North Korea would become less of a priority and the United States might pay less attention to the development of its nuclear program. In the second case, the Republican Party might also advocate sanctions against North Korea, which would result in an increase in the violence of North Korea’s rhetoric, something South Korea is always sensitive to. Although the Republican Party’s official stance is to “deter aggression on the Korean peninsula,” a lack of true understanding of the region and the North Korean government may trigger just the opposite effect.

Although South Korea and a new Republican Senate may disagree on how to deal with North Korea, one positive aspect of the right-wing takeover is that the Republicans are likely to favor an agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a new free-trade zone that has been in the works since 2005 and currently includes 12 countries in Asia and the Americas. South Korea is not one of those countries but has officially expressed interest in joining the TPP. Although the TPP has been the source of much controversy within Korea and in the international community as a whole because of the lack of transparency within the negotiations, the South Korean government is still eager to participate in a more extensive Pacific free-trade area if ongoing negotiations with current member countries do eventually work out. Joining the TPP would help South Korea access the market of some TPP member countries that it does not already have free trade agreements with, and enhance the free-trade agreements it already has with TPP members like the United States, China, and more. It would also make South Korea a bigger player on the international economic stage, and thus help achieve one of the government’s domestic goals of improving South Korea’s economy. To speed up negotiations and minimize sticking points, US President Obama has asked Congress to grant him “fast-track” negotiating authority on the TPP, which would give his administration the authority to negotiate clauses with foreign governments without having to constantly seek approval from Congress. The Republicans generally believe that international trade bolsters the economy, and thus it is widely expected that a Republican-dominated Congress will authorize this fast-track vote. If this is the case, the TPP will move one step closer to coming into existence and South Korea will be able to start seriously considering whether or not it wants to join.

Overall, South Korea’s reaction to the results of the midterm elections shows that changes in the American government impact not only domestic affairs but also to a certain degree the rest of the world, both directly and indirectly. Because this is the first time that the Republicans have been in control of the legislative branch since President Obama’s much-vaunted “pivot towards Asia,” policy, South Korea has good reason to be concerned about how the new majority will treat the region. Although the Republican majority might help Korea economically through the TPP, North Korea remains a major concern. Although Korea Joongang Daily has called Obama’s strategy towards North Korea one of “strategic patience,” the Korea Herald calls it “benign neglect.” It will be interesting to see how the Obama administration continues this policy without having a Democratic majority in Congress.