Netanyahu Pivots Right to Decisively Win Israeli Election

On March 17, Israelis elected representatives for the Knesset—Israel’s national legislative body. The campaign was marked by intense competition between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud and the Zionist Union, the center-left party of challenger Isaac Herzog. With Likud and the Zionist Union running neck and neck in Israeli opinion polls, Netanyahu made last-minute appeals to voters and spoke to the media for an astonishing 1,450 minutes in the last week of the campaign.

In his final media push, Netanyahu pivoted right in order to appeal to conservative voters. Netanyahu’s strategy paid off, and Likud won 30 seats to the Zionist Union’s 24. The influence of the Israeli electorate’s conservative wing pushed Netanyahu’s rhetoric further to the right and may have repercussions for Israel and the entire region.

On the day before the election, Netanyahu told Israeli news outlet Maariv that he would not allow the creation of a Palestinian state. When asked whether his return as Prime Minister would categorically prohibit the formation of a Palestinian state, Netanyahu responded with a single Hebrew word, achen, which means “indeed.”

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict was not a high-profile election issue; however, Netanyahu’s rejection of the two-state solution was an attempt to rally Israel’s far-right hardliners. In 2009 Netanyahu pledged his support for a two-state solution during speech at Bar-Ilan University, and the Prime Minister’s pre-election comment was interpreted as major rightward shift in his Palestinian policy. However, in an NBC interview two days after the election, Netanyahu insisted that his policy had not changed.

Netanyahu’s campaign also alienated Israel’s Arab citizens in an attempt to woo right-wing Israelis. On Election Day, Netanyahu’s campaign posted a video on Facebook in which the Prime Minister warned, “The rule of the political right is in danger. The Arab voters are moving in vast numbers to the polling stations. The left-wing NGOs are busing them in.” Likud also sent a text message claiming, “Voting percentages tripled among the Arab population! The concern is coming true: The call by [President Mahmoud Abbas] and American money are bringing Arabs to the polls. Go vote!”

Netanyahu’s tactics represent a last-ditch appeal to the Israeli right at the expense of the Arab citizens of Israel, who comprise one fifth of the Israeli electorate. Netanyahu’s Election Day remarks have garnered criticism. Israeli President Reuven Rivlen chided Netanyahu, “Everyone must be careful in their comments, especially those that the entire world hears."

The Joint List, an alliance of Israel’s Arab candidates who won 14 seats in the Knesset, filed complaints with Israel’s Attorney General and accused the Prime Minister of racism. On Monday, Netanyahu apologized for the remarks.

Likud’s rhetorical pivot to woo right-wing voters paid off in the election. Pre-election polls showed Likud trailing the Zionist Union, and exit polls showed both parties running neck and neck. However, Likud emerged victorious and won more seats than expected, at the expense of other conservative parties. Despite six months of polling as Israel’s second largest party behind Likud and Zionist Union, the right-wing, religious party Bayit Yehudi failed to stop a stream of votes to Likud.

Although Netanyahu’s rightward pivot succeeded in garnering votes, it may be a Pyrrhic victory. The win could harm Netanyahu as forms his new coalition in the Knesset. By pocketing votes from other right-leaning parties, Netanyahu reduced the number of conservative representatives.

U.S. President Barack Obama may be capitalizing on Netanyahu’s controversial comments. The White House condemned Netanyahu’s comments as “deeply concerning” and “divisive.” In his first comments after Netanyahu’s reelection, President Obama said,  "We take him at his word when he said that [the creation of a Palestinian state] wouldn't happen during his prime ministership, and so we've got to evaluate what other options are available.”

For decades the U.S. has used its position on the UN Security Council to block any resolution towards a final agreement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, the U.S. could change its approach in response to Netanyahu’s success. “We’re currently evaluating our approach. We’re not going to prejudge what we would do if there was a U.N. action,” State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Wednesday.

Netanyahu’s victory may come with a steep price for Israel. The growing influence of the Israeli right has increased the probability that the United States would support a U.N. resolution on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.