Michael Sata’s Legacy and Zambia’s Political Outlook

“The greatest tribute that Zambians can give to their late fifth republican president Michael Chilufya Sata is to continue with his great works and ensure that they speak into future generations,” said Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe to a crowd of more than 60,000 Zambians and other regional delegations who had gathered at Heroes Stadium in Lusaka, Zambia to attend the funeral of President Sata on November 11.

Celebrations commemorating Zambia’s 50 years of independence were cut short last month when news broke of the death of President Sata, who had flown to London in October to treat an undisclosed illness. Sata, who had not made public appearances since September, collapsed in his hotel room in New York before his speech at the UN General Assembly. His last public appearance in Zambia was earlier that month, when he addressed Parliament with a joke, “I’m not dead.” Although praised by many for his firebrand politics, he leaves behind a country with a struggling economy, high unemployment and a delicate political situation.

Mr. Sata came from humble beginnings, holding positions such as a police officer in then-Northern Rhodesia and a train station sweeper in London. He entered politics soon after Zambia’s independence and became heavily involved in the United National Independence Party (UNIP), eventually working his way up to the governorship of the Lusaka Province. As governor, he was well-received for his hard work and was even known to pick up garbage himself as part of his drive to clean up the streets. He then switched over to the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), serving several ministerial posts in President Frederick Chiluba’s government. In the 2001 elections, the MMD passed on Sata to nominate Levy Mwanawasa, who would eventually become president and die in office in 2008. In frustration, he formed his own Patriotic Front (PF) party and unsuccessfully vied for the presidency in 2001, 2006 and 2008. He finally won in 2011 against the incumbent President Rupiah Banda, campaigning on a populist platform of fighting inequality and curbing the influence of Indian and Chinese investors.

Following President Sata’s death, Vice President Guy Scott has been sworn in as the sitting president, making him the first white head of state on the African continent since President F.W. de Klerk of South Africa at the end of apartheid. Mr. Scott is stipulated to be in office for 90 days until new elections are held in January 2015, although he himself is barred by the Zambian Constitution from running because his parents were not born in country.

On one end, Sata leaves a Zambia that is in relatively better shape than its neighbors. The landlocked country has not been through the same ethnic and racial strife as South Africa or Zimbabwe - despite Sata’s populist tendencies, he worked closely with Vice President Scott. His ascendency to president in 2011 ended the 11 years of rule by the MMD, and this change of power occurred peacefully without any large-scale violence. The transfer of the presidency to Scott last month went smoothly, an indication of Zambia’s improving democratic institutions. Under Sata’s rule, the economy grew by about six percent per year, and real GDP per capita improved by ten percent. He was praised for his hard work and persistence, and given the nickname “King Cobra” for his sharp tongue in his attacks against political opponents. For many Zambians, Sata was a president who tirelessly dedicated himself to the Zambian people.

Yet, his three-year presidency is not without its critics. Although the Zambian economy has been one of the fastest-growing in the world, much of its growth has come from the copper industry, which accounted for about 73 percent of all exports in 2012. Poverty remains at 60 percent and unemployment at 65 percent, with life expectancy continuing to be among the lowest in the world. Although Sata campaigned heavily against the power of mining companies, he did have to tone down his rhetoric during his time in office. Some progress has been made: he introduced measures to curb tax evasion, like the requirement that mining companies present export certificates. However,  the transitional government now faces a standoff with big businesses over tax refunds. This has stalled almost USD 2 billion in investments, which could spell disaster for Zambia’s crucial mining industry.

Many Zambians have also berated the handling of Sata’s death. Rather than having him formally step down and handing power, Sata’s staff was very secretive of his medical condition and only waited until his passing to transfer the presidency over to Mr. Scott. This has been the case with a number of African presidents, such as Ghana’s President Atta Mills who died in office in 2012 after months of secret trips abroad to receive treatment.

Zambia will face uncertainty in the coming months. Although the transfer of power went relatively smoothly, political tension is starting to emerge within the Patriotic Front. This has partially stemmed from conflict between Acting President Scott and PF leader Edgar Lungu, who stand on opposite sides of the political party. Several days into his inauguration, Scott fired Lungu as the party leader, prompting riots in Lusaka. Scott was forced to rescind his decision almost immediately.

Party infighting has also occurred over how to select the new candidate for January’s elections. While Scott maintains that a National Conference must be held, Lungu insists that the PF’s Central Committee ought to decide the method of nomination. Threats by Scott to arrest party members who oppose his views, and claims by Minister of Information Dr. Joseph Katema that Sata had personally appointed Lungu to be his successor, have also added fuel to the fire.

Although Zambia’s current political position remains precarious, the past success of transferring power after the death of President Mwanawasa in 2008 shows that the government is capable of handling the transition. This stability will help Zambia  to focus on economic growth in the long term, which will continue to be its major challenge. Poverty, unemployment and the lack of economic diversification will need to be the main challenges for future governments to tackle. It will be important to keep an eye on January’s elections, as the MMD still holds major influence as an opposition party. However, one thing will be different this time around: Michael Sata’s larger-than-life personality will surely be missed on the campaign trail.