Experts Discuss Turkey in Aftermath of Attempted Coup
The SFS Europe Forum, a graduate student-run organization, hosted their first panel discussion of the year on July 15, the same day of the failed Turkish coup. “What we have now is a grandiose mess,” summarized Dr. Sinan Ciddi, Executive Director of Georgetown’s Institute of Turkish Studies. Former Member of Turkish Parliament Dr. Aykan Erdemir concurred with this bleak diagnosis, calling present-day Turkey a “semi-failed state.”
The relationship between Turkey and the West has long been a source of reassurance for the West. Though some claim Atatürk’s legacy has been tarnished under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey remains the region’s most secular and stable democracy. It has worked closely with the United States and the European Union in combating terrorism and handling the Syrian refugee crisis.
However, this stability has recently deteriorated. The government has faced serious public protests—most notably the Gezi Park demonstrations, which mobilized 2.5 million people across the country in the summer of 2013. Moreover, Kurdish and Islamic State (IS) militants have carried out over 15 major attacks on Turkish soil since June 2015, killing more than 330 people.
Unrest culminated on July 15 with the coup attempt, when members of the Turkish military seized key positions in Ankara and Istanbul before loyalists halted them. According to the Prime Minister, 265 people were killed and thousands more were injured.
President Erdogan has blamed exiled cleric Fetullah Gulen for “ordering and commanding the attempted coup.”
“The coup did not come out of nowhere,” said Dr. Ciddi. Gulen and Erdogan were allies as Erdogan ascended to power in the early 2000s but drifted apart as he tightened his grip on authority. Journalist Fehmi Koru says what has ensued is “a war between two factions - one in power and the other having infiltrated the civil and military bureaucracy.”
Erdogan has now launched an effort to crush the Gulen movement and all other opposition.
“State institutions, Turkey’s military, Turkey’s business sector, Turkey’s media, universities are all highline targets of the Erdogan government right now,” says Dr. Ciddi.
Reuters reports that 100,000 people in the civil service, police, military, and judiciary have been sacked or suspended, and another 40,000 detained.
Dr. Erdemir condemned the government’s “collective effort to suspend rule of law, due process, and institutions.” He warned that his country is following “a slippery slope” and could lose its historic role as the West’s main partner in the region. He was unafraid to use strong words, calling Turkey a “ticking time bomb [that] could bring Europe and NATO down with it.”
Panelists explored the dynamics of Turkey’s role in the fight against IS. Dr. Erdemir added that Turkey is “the only NATO ally with a lack of accountability, the only NATO ally that can put boots on the ground, the only NATO ally that can tolerate body bags, and the only NATO ally where you only deal with the leader.”
“Ironically, the breakdown of Turkish institutions and its chain of command could be its comparative advantage,” he conceded.
Given the West’s reluctance to engage in Syria and Iraq, Erdogan’s post-coup Turkey may prove an attractive and convenient ally looking ahead.