As UN Talks Seek Peace, ISIS Fear Grips Libya
Libyan representatives are currently gathered in Geneva, Switzerland, for a new round of peace talks hosted by the United Nations. However, the Islamic State (ISIS) has reached North Africa, and Libyan turmoil may provide a staging ground for future terror. Rival governments, warring militias, economic instability, and foreign intervention have pushed Libya towards the edge of becoming a failed state, and the UN-led talks may be Libya’s last chance to avoid total chaos. The Islamic State has established a strong foothold in cities along the Mediterranean coastline of eastern Libya, marking a significant expansion for the group, which is based in Iraq and Syria. ISIS-aligned groups are currently stationed in Sirte, Nofilia, Benghazi, and Derna. While the exact number of Libyan ISIS fighters is uncertain, it is clear that their presence has heightened the sense of peril among Libyans as thousands have fled in recent weeks. Libya, a former Italian colony, shared economic and political ties with Rome during the Gadhafi era, and Italy has become a common destination for migrants. On February 9, the Italian coast guard rescued 100 Libyan migrants adrift on a raft in the Mediterranean, 160 km from Lampedusa, an Italian island south of Sicily. Recent weeks have marked a surge in Libyan migrants. Since the beginning of the year, Italians have rescued 5,300 Libyan migrants fleeing Libya, a 60% increase since last year.
The growing presence of ISIS in Libya has spurred fears that the failing nation could serve as a North African staging ground for attacks on Europe. This month, Libyan ISIS militants released the group’s first footage filmed outside ISIS-controlled territories in Iraq and Syria. In the video, which depicts the beheadings of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christian workers kidnapped in Sirte, the Libyan ISIS jihadists label the murdered Christians as “crusaders” and threaten to “conquer Rome.” A controversial article in The Atlantic claimed that ISIS militants are motivated by a fanatical belief that a battle between Muslims and the “armies of Rome” in northern Syria will trigger the apocalypse. The article has received heated criticism from political pundits and Muslim scholars, and the precise significance of the threat to Rome remains unclear; however, European officials are taking the Libyan militants seriously. The surge of Libyan migrants poses a particular threat, and Italian officials have expressed fears that ISIS militants disguised as migrants could infiltrate Italy by raft.
The growing presence of ISIS has presented a serious threat to the prospect of peace in war-torn Libya. In a statement to the United Nations Security Council last week, UN Special Representative for Libya Bernardino Leon warned that the recent attacks have demonstrated “a growing ability and determination on the part of Islamic State to exploit the political crisis and consequent security vacuum to consolidate its presence and influence across Libya.” Yet, in the face of terror and chaos, hope remains. “Within Libya, reactions to the talks have been overwhelmingly positive and appear to have injected a new ray of hope regarding the possibility of a peaceful resolution of the political crisis and military conflict,” Bernardino said.
UN Talks: Libya’s Last Chance?
In January, Libyan representatives completed two rounds of peace talks in Geneva lead by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), and the diplomatic process is well underway. In a meeting last week, the representatives agreed to reach a political resolution to the conflict by forming a unity government. This week, representatives from Libyan municipal councils will meet to discuss confidence-building measures.
The talks have gathered representatives from Libya’s two rival governments. In August, members of the Libyan House of Representatives were forced to flee to the eastern city of Tobruk when the Fajr Libya (Libya Dawn) movement, a coalition of Islamist militias, seized the capital, Tripoli. The members of the House of Representatives were elected in June to replace the General National Congress (GNC), a body dominated by Islamist politicians. The June elections marked a defeat for the Islamists, and the Libya Dawn movement rose to reinstall the GNC in Tripoli. The Tobruk administration is recognized as Libya’s legitimate government by the international community.
Although progress is being made in the peace talks, Libya is perilously near the edge of becoming a failed state.
Libya lacks a central security force, and the rival administrations, both incapable of enforcing order, have resorted to local militias for military support. Militias in various cities rose to prominence in 2011 when their cooperation led to the overthrow of Muammar Gadhafi’s regime. However, when NATO forces withdrew following Gadhafi’s defeat, Libya splintered into militia-controlled territories. Militias have now pledged their support for Libya’s rival administrations. The Misurata militia led the Libya Dawn coalition’s capture of Tripoli and has held the city in spite of brutal opposition by a rival militia from Zintan. Meanwhile a militia led by Gadhafi-era generl Khalifa Haftar has declared support for the Tobruk administration. The militia, which calls itself the Libyan National Army, is embroiled in a battle against Libyan Islamists including Ansar al-Sharia, a terrorist organization linked to the 2012 attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi.
Regardless of the success of the peace talks, economic instability and foreign intervention may smother Libya’s hopes. A looming economic crisis bodes ill for the stability of the potential Libyan unity government. Drained global oil prices and war-damaged oil facilities are diminishing the only major source of revenue for Libya’s current national budget. In addition, Libya’s neighbors have intervened to support both sides, and foreign intervention may sabotage the prospect of peace. Qatari military intervention has aided Libya’s Islamist rebels since 2011, and Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have coordinated airstrikes against Libyan Islamists since August.
The UN effort has inspired hope for Libya; however, doubts remain, and Libya’s future may be shrouded by the threat of ISIS.