A (Single) Day of Democracy for Nicaragua

On February 25, Nicaragua celebrated the “Day of Democracy” for the first time in its history in commemoration of ex-President Violeta Barrios’s victory in the 1990 elections, a time that, for many, marked the beginning of a true democracy in Nicaragua. Now, 25 years later, the country is led by the Sandinistas, with President Ortega in power since 2006. Ortega’s recent constitutional reforms, and his monopoly over all branches of the state, along with a fragmented political opposition, paint a dim outlook for Nicaragua’s democracy. Many Nicaraguans frustrated with Ortega, both at home and abroad, hope the Day of Democracy will have an impact beyond historical reflection by rising activism among the opposition.

Ortega is not a new face in Nicaraguan politics. He led in the 1980s communist regime as a military commander, and was the primary opponent to Barrios in the 1990 election. This time around, however, Ortega is of a much more centrist ideology in his rule. His first victory in 2006 emerged from relatively transparent elections, the result of a divided opposition and a resurfaced support from Sandinistas. From then on, however, his rule has displayed countless features of a single-party dictatorship, becoming more and more stable each year. The Sandinistas hold a majority in Congress while monopolizing the executive ministries, the judiciary, and the electoral council. The 2011 presidential elections in which Ortega ran unconstitutionally were blatantly unfair and lacking in transparency. While Organization of American States and European Union observers vaguely expressed criticism, Nicaraguan opponents to Ortega took to the streets the day after the results, demanding a recount.

Perhaps the most prominent example of Ortega’s unconstitutional leadership was when he proposed making reforms to the constitution in 2013. The reforms would, in the words of Nicaraguan journalist Carlos Chamorro, “legalize everything that until now he has done illegally.” Among the goals of these reforms were an indefinite re-election for Ortega, a vaguely stipulated “direct democracy” through organisms called Sandinista Family Councils, and the involvement of the military in civilian posts in the state. While the majority of civil society, including opposition parties and think-tanks, opposed these reforms, one of the more prominent organizations of civil society actually negotiated the reforms privately with Mr. Ortega. The Chamber of Private Enterprise, COSEP, managed to secure its power and the private enterprise’s independence from Ortega’s politics, substantially diminishing the undermining effects of the reforms on democratic processes and institutions.

This new “pact” between business leaders and Ortega is in line with his relatively stable macroeconomic policy, marking an important difference between the current regime and that of the 1980s. Government spending is austere, inflation rates are no more than 7%, and private investment grows, albeit at a sluggish pace. While Nicaraguans are fearing a rise in gas prices due to Venezuela’s economic situation and the consequent decrease in foreign aid from oil revenues, the government doesn’t seem to address this issue in its expectations for 2015. All the while, the Chinese enterprise HKND has begun preliminary building of the famous interoceanic canal, a mega-project that inspires much skepticism in terms of its legality and its environmental consequences.

Even though Nicaragua is growing at slow rates, there is no chaos, no economic disaster. Ortega and his parades and speeches are kept to the “Plaza” in central Managua and certain roundabouts, which the rest of Nicaragua avoids on national holidays. The national police is ever more corrupt, taking $10 bribes in exchange for an excused ticket, yet nobody seems particularly unsettled. The Sandinistas have a solid base of political support, the country is in relatively good standing, and the opposition has yet to unite into a coalition for next year’s presidential elections; a sense of urgency is missing. While according to Violeta Barrios’s daughter, back in 1990 “the opposition was as fragmented as it is today,” a victory over Ortega, to many, seems even more impossible than the one 25 years ago.