The Spread of Terror: IS in South East Asia

Multiple explosions and gunfire were reported near the Sarinah shopping mall in central Jakarta, Indonesia on January 14. Two blasts went off, the first inside a Starbucks and another at a police post outside the mall, injuring 23 and killing two. Even though Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world, it sees relatively few terrorist incidents compared to its counterparts in the Middle East. However, the fact that the Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for January’s attack has raised growing concern that IS is making inroads within the country and the wider region.

The Indonesian police reported in November that they had received intelligence of IS threatening to carry out an attack in the country. In the weeks leading up to Thursday’s attack, the police arrested 16 terrorism suspects in Jakarta and across the main island of Java but failed to uncover the plot. This failure raises questions about the effectiveness of Indonesia’s elite counter terrorism force known as Detachment 88.

Created after the 2002 attack in Bali that killed over 200 people, the force has been largely successful in its counter-terrorism efforts. It has killed or captured much of Jemaah Islamiah’s leadership, the group linked to Al Qaeda responsible for the Bali attack. Still, JI has been expanding into Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, presenting a new threat of terrorism to South East Asia as a whole.

Over 87 percent of the Indonesian population identifies as Muslim. While Indonesia has long been touted as a model for moderate Islam, Aceh Province on the Island of Sumatra has housed a more conservative Muslim population fighting for autonomy for years. Since its first separatist movement in the 1950s, the province has gained more autonomy, notably visible through its permission to practice Sharia law, obtained in 2005. Human rights groups continue to protest these laws, but their removal might lead to another insurgency.

The Philippines faces a similar issue with the Muslim population of Mindanao Island fighting for autonomy. The Philippines is home to a number of militant groups, including the Abu Sayyaf Group, Jemaah Islamiyah, the Moro National Liberation Front, and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. These groups have conducted more than one hundred attacks within the Philippines since 2004. The Filipino government has taken significant steps to combat terrorism, but terrorists continue to use the country as a base to organize, raise funds, train, and operate.

A report conducted by the Soufan Group, a security and intelligence consulting group, showed that approximately 600 Southeast Asians are fighting in Syria as of December 2015. The vast majority are from Indonesia, with Malaysians coming a distant second. A former Filipino president told reporters in August 2014 that at least 100 of his countrymen were training in Islamic State-held territory in Iraq, with Filipino nationals showing up on IS beheading videos as forms of recruitment. Such data reflects an upward trend of IS foreign fighters originating in South East Asian countries, including Indonesia and the Philippines, both with areas of insurgent Muslim movements.

Fears about surges in recruitment rates remain in Indonesia and Malaysia, as do concerns about growing domestic support for these groups within the country. A 2013 PEW poll reported that 78 percent of Indonesian Muslims and 63 percent of Malaysian Muslims had a “favorable” view of IS. In addition, 18 percent of Malaysian Muslims but only 7 percent of Indonesian Muslims found suicide bombing acceptable. The Indonesian and Philippine governments’ fragile relationships with certain secessionist regions make them possible hotbeds for recruitment. Ultimately, before counter-terrorism measures can be effective, the channel of recruitment must be stopped.