Lebanon Forms First Government in Two Years

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Arlington, VA (Wikimedia Commons)

Lebanon formed its first government after two years of deadlock on February 8, 2025, marking a potential return to normalcy after months of war and economic decline. The country’s new president, Joseph Aoun, finalized the event by signing the official decree with his chosen Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam. Neither public official had the typically-influential endorsement of Hezbollah, which could signal a turning point in the country’s politics. 

Despite not being a state actor, Hezbollah has historically operated with impunity within Lebanon’s borders and has had its hand in the running of the country. It administered social services, enjoyed popular support from the public for its anti-Israel stance, and endorsed and ran candidates for the Lebanese Parliament, many of whom saw significant success. However, the recent war with Israel has left the organization battered and lacking its typical pull in Lebanese politics. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was also killed during the fighting.

As a result, on January 10, Parliament elected their first President in two years, former armed forces commander Joseph Aoun. He ran with an unusually anti-Hezbollah, pro-reform platform, stating to Parliament that he would advocate for the “state’s right to monopolize the carrying of weapons,” a jab at Hezbollah’s military operations. He prevailed over Hezbollah’s protests. He then chose Nawaf Salam, a former official of the International Court of Justice, a body typically hostile to terrorist organizations, as his PM.

Salam won 84 of a potential 128 votes, with most of the pro-Hezbollah bloc voting against. His supporters included Parliament’s Christian, Sunni, and Druze sects, with most of the usually Hezbollah-aligned Shia factions in opposition. He also had Saudi Arabia’s backing. Hezbollah’s bloc has stated that they will not participate in the new government. 

Ultimately Hezbollah did make it into the cabinet, but without the voting power they had enjoyed in previous years. Out of Lebanon’s 26-member cabinet, Hezbollah and its allies got to name just four ministers. That also leaves their bloc several votes short of the one-third they require to shut down government activities. Many cabinet decisions require a two-thirds supermajority to enact, allowing a minority with a so-called “blocking third” to gridlock official business if they so choose, but this avenue is now closed to Hezbollah. It follows their bloc’s loss of a majority in Parliament following the 2022 elections. 

The United States also had unusual involvement in the formation of government. Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy and opponent of Israel. The new administration’s more overt opposition to Iran and support for Israel prompted a State Department official to indicate Hezbollah’s participation in the new government would cross a “red line” for Washington. While Hezbollah is now in government, their lack of votes in a largely hostile, pro-reform cabinet may leave them with little power.

The new cabinet enters government at a trying time for the country. Since 2019, Lebanon has  faced a crippling economic crisis that has seen its GDP fall by 50%, its currency by over 90%, and its banking system in what S&P Global has termed “selective default.” While the causes are complex, they ultimately arise from excessive debt-financing gone wrong and a withdrawal of financial support from neighboring Arab nations, who were suspicious of Hezbollah’s growing influence. However, those withdrawals only intensified Hezbollah’s pull. By withdrawing support, neighboring Arab states damaged the Lebanese economy in such a substantial way that the army has been unable to pay its soldiers, driving more to Hezbollah’s ranks. 

But the war severely damaged Hezbollah, which may give the state the authority it needs to reassert itself and potentially mend relations with its neighbors. However, the war also exasperated the economic crisis, doing billions worth of damage and killing hundreds. Furthermore, the ceasefire is not the end of this chapter in Lebanon’s history, as Israel has refused to completely withdraw from Lebanon’s borders, violating the terms of their ceasefire.

These are the conditions in which the new government enters after two years of gridlock. Their main focuses will be pressing their political advantage, implementing the ceasefire, and repairing the damage caused by the recession and war. Lebanese politics have finally settled on a faction with a pro-reform agenda after years of dysfunction. Addressing the country’s problems will require considerable change, and that is what the new government pledges to bring after diminishing Hezbollah. 

Hezbollah’s apparent decline in Lebanon represents a larger shift in both the country and region. The installation of an anti-Hezbollah government formed by a U.S.- and Saudi Arabia-backed PM could signify the decline of Iran’s influence in the country. Across the border, the fall of the pro-Iran Assad regime, cheered on by a vocally anti-Iran Trump administration with which Iran has a checkered history, could spell trouble for the fundamentalist Shia state. 

As for Lebanon, the new government faces a myriad of challenges. However, with it being led by a uniquely powerful pro-reform faction, the new government could be a sign that an end to the country’s troubles may finally be in sight.