The Atatürk dam created the third largest lake in Turkey (Wikimedia Commons).

In a 2019 report, the UN estimated that the global availability of renewable freshwater resources is 7,453 cubic meters per capita per year, whereas in the WANA region (West Asia and North Africa),* this figure drops significantly to 736 cubic meters per capita per year.

These figures are reiterated in the UN’s most recent report, published in 2023. “Characterized by its arid to semi-arid climate, the Arab region suffers from surface water scarcity. Over 392 million people in the region live with less than 1,000 m of renewable freshwater per capita per year” (Aquastat, UNDESA, 2019).

The WANA region is an arid area, and this aridity is a foundational element of its culture and organization. Early on, a quest for water management emerged, leading to the development of ingenious irrigation techniques. Agriculture itself was born in the Nile Valley and the Tigris-Euphrates Basin. Distinct social structures developed around the issue of water.

Then, as well as today, a growing gap exists between available water volumes and needs, driven by four key factors: population growth, the associated challenge of food security, urbanization, economic development, and the additional burden of climate change.

As a result, the WANA region is marked by tensions and concerns, both regarding access to water and the decisions about its allocation. In this region, where oil flows abundantly, the true treasure is not so much black gold as it is blue gold.

What is the current situation?

*Level of water stress of all sectors by major basin. Map source: FAO and UN-Water, 2021.*

The WANA region is part of a great arid diagonal stretching from Mauritania to Central Asia. It is located between the temperate and tropical zones, far from seas and oceans, or isolated from them by mountain barriers or atmospheric conditions like the Azores High (as in the case of Morocco). High-altitude winds blow in unfavorable directions, either driving away precipitation or drying the air. Rainfall is infrequent and presents additional challenges: it is highly irregular and often occurs in autumn, when it is of little use to vegetation. Similarly, water levels can fluctuate significantly from year to year and are often marked by intense downpours, leading to runoff on parched soils.

These issues require the storage of water for later use. Furthermore, filtration is necessary, as the intensity of the rains causes erosion, which leads to the addition of sediments and pollutants in water sources, making them unsuitable for direct use. Consequently, the region suffers from an inadequate hydrographic network.

Most countries in the WANA region provide access to drinking water for their populations, but only through intricate and precarious adaptations to the region's challenging natural environment, including complex infrastructure projects and subsidized water costs.

According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 2018, out of the 12 countries with the least water resources, nine were part of the WANA region. Overall, the WANA region is experiencing water stress, defined as having less than 1,700 cubic meters of water per year per capita. The region is now heading toward water scarcity, with less than 1,000 cubic meters per capita. Apart from Iraq and Mauritania, all countries in the WANA region face water scarcity.

It’s important to note that these figures are calculated based on theoretical estimates. In Lebanon, for example, half of the available water resources are non-exploitable because the water flows over limestone formations, making it too saline to use effectively.

The causes for WANA’s water stress are numerous: the population has increased fivefold since the 1960s. Additionally, the modernization of the economy requires water. Yet, the main factor is attempts to expand agricultural activity, as even today, agriculture accounts for 82.11 percent of water consumption in the region.

“It is a region that has always been arid. But there are also areas in the region where overpopulation is an issue—due to displacement, especially in urban centers,” said Dr. Marwa Daoudy, Associate Professor of International Relations at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service (SFS) and the Seif Ghobash Chair in Arab Studies at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS).

Due to the lack of water in rural areas and agricultural difficulties, many populations migrate to urban centers. For example, in Algeria, the urban population increased from 70 percent in 2014 to 75 percent in 2023.

*Level of water stress due to the agricultural sector by basin. Map source: FAO and UN-Water, 2021.*

But this rural exodus has consequences, as rapid urbanization can hinder the development of adequate infrastructure, such as effective distribution methods, sewage systems, and regulatory mechanisms.

The policies of the governments in the region

“And we also have policies that are not sustainable—for example, the over-pumping of underground resources. During droughts, farming communities tend to dig deeper and deeper to find water,” said Dr. Daoudy.

Governments are taking water access issues seriously because they consider water an immensely valuable resource. However, the policies implemented are often limited and insufficient to address the challenges effectively.

Large-scale development projects have been a primary intervention, often involving major dams on large rivers. Among the most notable is the Aswan Dam, completed in 1971 in Egypt, along with a series of large dams on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, such as the Tabqa Dam in Syria.

The primary objective of these projects is to create reservoirs to regulate water supply, although some dams are designed for water diversion. In such cases, the reservoir is used to create canals that redirect water to other areas. For example, the New Valley Project linked to the Aswan Dam aims to reclaim desert land to expand agricultural activities. In November 2024, the Egyptian government announced plans to cultivate about 4 million acres.

Groundwater aquifers are another source of freshwater, which have historically created oases. However, these renewable resources are insufficient to meet the needs of all countries in the region. As a result, large fossil aquifers are being increasingly exploited. Drilling has uncovered vast underground water reserves deep within the desert in countries like Algeria, Libya, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. These reservoirs are substantial, but their water quality and salinity vary significantly, and their exploitation comes with significant challenges.

Non-conventional water resources are also on the rise, particularly seawater desalination. The WANA region holds more than half of the world’s desalination capacity. Saudi Arabia has been a pioneer in this area, hosting some of the largest desalination plants globally, such as the Jebel Ali plant in Dubai and the Al Maqtaa plant in Algeria. However, these solutions are not without drawbacks—they are highly polluting and energy-intensive.

Water recycling offers another potential solution, but apart from Israel, it is scarcely utilized in the region. Occasionally, large-scale water transfers are undertaken within a country. One example is Libya's Great Man-Made River Project, which pumps water from Saharan aquifers and transports it to the coastal regions.

The impact of climate change

Unlike other exploitable resources in the region, water reserves are particularly vulnerable to climate change.

“There is a question of water scarcity due to climate change. The Middle East region has been highlighted by the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] in its reports. They state that it is the region that will experience the most droughts, a decline in rainfall, and reduced precipitation. This will have a range of impacts on agriculture and the displacement of populations,” said Dr. Daoudy.

According to Dr. Daoudy, the consequences of climate change in the region include drought, drastically rising temperatures, decreased rainfall, and numerous wildfires. These wildfires destroy forests and communities, as seen in recent years in Lebanon, Turkey, and Syria.

These consequences are already visible. Iraq experienced temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Celsius in summer 2023.

“There is also an issue that renewable energy, which is a way to adapt and avoid further polluting the environment, requires significant investments,” indicated Dr. Daoudy.

Water: Cause of Conflicts in the Region

As with any scarce resource, water is an object of greed and stimulates local, national, or activity-related selfishness. There are two levels of competition: within states and between states.

The first of these conflicts is between the urban and rural world. There are activity-related conflicts—for example, agriculture competing with other activities for access, such as urban expansion, tourism, and industrial development. Industrial consumption is low but can sometimes be significant and lead to the disappearance of certain oases.

These conflicts create tensions around four major rivers: the Jordan, the Tigris, the Euphrates, and the Nile.

There are also transboundary conflicts because many of these countries build dams to generate electricity via hydroelectric power. These dams use significant amounts of water, leading to a decrease in available water downstream for drinking and agricultural use. This, in turn, impacts populations' access to clean drinking water. Furthermore, electricity is essential for operating water purification systems, leading to insufficient purification and increased risk of waterborne diseases. For example, in Iraq, the building of dams upstream, particularly in Turkey and Syria, has reduced the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. In Iraq, 59 percent of the population does not have access to clean drinking water.

The Case of the Nile

Egypt long enjoyed hegemony because of its prestige and power. In 1929, there was an agreement between the young Egyptian state and Great Britain, the colonial power over all the upstream countries. After Sudan’s independence, another agreement between Egypt and Sudan was reached on the sharing of the Nile’s waters. The two countries reserved between 85 percent and 90 percent of the Nile’s waters.

But today, Egypt is experiencing a serious crisis linked to explosive population growth. The Egyptian population has nearly quadrupled since the filling of the Aswan Dam, and it is estimated that twice the current capacity of Lake Nasser would be needed. But Egypt can no longer impose itself as the leader of the Arab world. It must accept consultation with 10 countries—the upstream states.

Ethiopia refuses to consider the Nile as a national river because it is not navigable on its soil, so it is excluded from the convention. There have been recent attempts at reconciliation, but faced with the firmness of Egypt and Sudan, the upstream countries agreed in Entebbe, Uganda, in 2010 to organize among themselves. Egypt and Sudan finally agreed to join the Nile Basin Commission, but mainly to monitor what others wanted to do. Currently, tensions are focused on the Renaissance Dam, built by Ethiopia on their border with Sudan. The goal is to develop hydroelectric power, while Sudan and Egypt have tried to counter this project.

In October 2024, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that the construction of the Renaissance Dam was complete. Six Nile Basin countries, including Ethiopia, ratified the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), enabling cooperative management of the Nile's waters. Egypt, which relies on the river for 97 percent of its water needs, rejected this agreement, considering it a threat to its historical rights over the Nile.

For these issues of international conflicts, Dr. Douady mentions a United Nations Convention that was established in 1997 and, since 2014, has been ratified by enough countries to become legally binding. It advocates the principle of reasonable and equitable use. As Dr. Douady explained, when multiple actors depend on the same water source, benefit-sharing agreements can be established.

The weaponization of water

Water is an essential resource but can also be mobilized in conflicts. As a vital and limited supply, it is a means used to exert pressure.

“Conflicts tend to weaponize, to use resources as weapons of war—for example, by preventing populations from accessing water,'” added Dr. Douady.

Indeed, groups in conflict use water pipelines or dams as a weapon. One illustration is the diverting of the Fallujah Dam's flow by Daesh to flood surrounding villages and prevent the advancement of Iraqi forces in 2014.

According to Dr. Douady, there is an entanglement of all these issues. “In my opinion, nothing in climate change is free from politics, because there is an actual impact, but there is also the way it is used by men and communities. And on top of that, when armed conflicts arise, there is an additional exacerbation,” concluded Dr. Douady.

Water is therefore a scarce resource involved in conflicts in the WANA region. But unlike other precious natural resources, this "blue gold" is subject to the devastating effects of climate change. In the WANA region, water access, and the public policies that enable it, is a matter of life and death.

*As defined here, the West Asia and North Africa region includes Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

ANALYSIS: Water, the Blue Gold of the WANA Region