Ukrainian Forces Retreat From Avdiivka
Russian advances finally forced Ukrainian defenders to retreat from the long-besieged city of Avdiivka (Flickr).
Russia officially captured the embattled city of Avdiivka after four long months of fighting on February 18, 2024. Ukraine’s new top commander, Oleksandr Syrsky, who had held the position for a mere ten days at that point, announced his forces’ withdrawal early the previous day. The development is a huge symbolic and strategic victory for Russia after months of bloody combat, as I’ve previously documented.
Fighting around the city ramped up significantly around mid-October 2023, with the Ukrainian defenders inflicting heavy losses on the advancing Russian forces. Faced with thousands of casualties, Russian forces switched to an encirclement tactic, and it appears to have worked. In his statement, Syrsky stated that he withdrew his forces to “more favorable borders” to avoid having them surrounded and cut off. Nevertheless, the victory was costly for Russia.
However, it is a significant one: aside from the symbolic win in taking the city after four months of intense fighting, it is also a strategic hub in the region. Moreover, it lies only around 15 miles from the Russian-held regional capital, rendering any Ukrainian efforts to one day retake it more difficult. President Biden attributed the defeat to a lack of US aid for Ukraine, which remains stalled in the House of Representatives.
The Russian capture of Avdiivka is the latest step in a larger Russian effort to regain the initiative. Alongside their final advance into the city, they launched a brief offensive into the southern regions of Zaporizhzhia which saw Russian forces retake several areas that Ukraine had captured in their counteroffensive last year. Ukraine attempted to counterattack, but to no avail. Russia, between its effective defense against Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year and its own largely successful, albeit bloody, efforts to retake territory, has projected confidence over the past few months in hopes of shaking the resolve of Ukraine’s allies.
Ukraine’s withdrawal marks a potential turning point in the balance of power on the battlefield. Since launching their failed 2023 counteroffensive, Ukraine has faced setback after setback while Russia has avoided further embarrassment following Ukraine’s initial pushes in 2022. The fall of Bakhmut in 2023 to Russian forces, coupled with Ukraine's reported manpower and morale problems, further complicates Kyiv's military position. Meanwhile, the stalled US aid package for Ukraine promises essential support if delivered, yet its delay underscores Ukraine's challenges in sustaining its defense against a revitalized Russia.