What Does Donald Trump’s Election Mean For the Future of Ukraine?
Donald Trump Meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky During His First Term As President (Flickr)
Donald Trump’s second administration is bound to bring a number of major policy changes to U.S. policy after his election, including on the topic of Ukraine, which is arguably the United States’ thorniest foreign policy debate today.
While he has previously expressed opposition to the idea of funding Ukraine’s war effort, such as when he torpedoed a bipartisan funding package that included aid in early 2024, key actors in both Russia and Ukraine have expressed optimism over his election. U.S. analysts remain uncertain about what course the President-elect will take.
On paper, there is abundant evidence that Trump will do whatever is in his power to limit aid to the war-torn democracy. He and those in his inner circle have floated the idea of pressuring Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal to end the conflict by threatening to end U.S. aid. Predicting this course of action, President Biden has pledged to deliver as much aid to Ukraine as possible before he leaves office. A sudden termination of support would be disastrous for Ukraine’s war effort, as they currently face one of Russia’s most aggressive offensives of the war. Moreover, Russian elites believe Trump will be a much friendlier leader with whom they could discuss a “new division of the world.” Many hired internet trolls to bolster his reelection bid.
There is precedent for a second Trump administration’s friendliness to Russia and opposition to Ukraine. Trump has consistently praised Putin ever since his first campaign for president. During his first term in the White House, he received his first impeachment for leveraging U.S. aid to Ukraine (before Russia’s invasion) to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into finding dirt on Joe Biden during the campaign cycle because of Hunter Biden’s business dealings in the country earlier. In general, Trump endorses a more isolationist stance on foreign policy, such as when he stated he would allow Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to underpaying members of NATO. In response, NATO members have taken measures to “Trump-proof” the alliance.
However, some Ukrainians have expressed optimism about Trump’s election, too. After the election, President Zelensky congratulated Trump on his win on social media. He later said in a statement he had “a productive conversation, a good conversation” with Trump, before adding that Trump would bring about the “kind of America that Europe needs.” Ukrainian servicemen on the front have had more mixed reactions, with some fearing he will cut off their supply lines, and others hoping his “peace through strength” approach will deter Russia. Other Ukrainian officials suggest they have little to lose, as Biden’s frequent hesitancy, such as not allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russia, has hindered Ukraine’s fight, and any change would be an improvement.
Trump has two proposals in front of him. One, recommended by Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance, is favorable to Russia, and would include freezing current front lines where they are without any repercussions to Putin. The other, recommended by Trump’s former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, would actually pursue a more aggressive stance toward Russia, benefitting Ukraine. Trump has not yet indicated which he prefers, but has previously stated he could end the conflict in 24 hours, though no one has provided details on how he would accomplish that. The 47th president remains a wildcard, and when it comes to Ukraine, it remains unclear which path he will pursue for peace in Europe.