Fears Surrounding Rise of Far-Right Politics in Germany Surge Ahead of Elections in Bavaria and Hesse

The logo of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which looks poised to make gains in October 8th regional elections (Wikimedia Commons)

German citizens and political leaders are anxiously awaiting the results of the October 8 state election in Bavaria and Hesse. Observers see the elections as a key indicator in light of the recent rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Led by Björn Höcke, the AfD runs on a platform hostile to immigration and climate change reform policy and has  received negative attention for using rhetoric resembling Nazi slogans. In the last few years, the party has surged in former East Germany, where it has reached 30 percent polling support for state elections in states like Thuringia. 

Since the AfD began gaining traction in 2015 due to the European migrant crisis, major parties like the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) have taken a hard stance against cooperating with the AfD. Now that it has surpassed the SDP in polling in the former East Germany, it is becoming difficult for these parties to avoid interacting with the AfD. The mainstream parties are at a crossroads, forced to rethink their relations with a party that has been flagged by German intelligence for being ideologically dangerous and un-democratic.

The AfD entered the Bundestag for the first time after the 2017 parliamentary elections. Voters in the Thoringian town of Nordhausen came extremely close to electing an AfD politician as mayor, with right-wing candidate Joerg Prophet losing to his independent opponent by just nine percent. Prophet’s narrow loss has shaken Germans fearful of a resurgence of the far-right, leaving them anxious for upcoming elections in Bavaria and Hesse, two states that border Thuringia.

If elected, the AfD promises to reinstate compulsory military service, roll back environmentally-friendly regulations, and decrease immigration. The AfD’s immigration policies have raised concerns due to the major role played by immigrants in the German economy. To counteract population loss from immigration restrictions, the AfD manifesto has advocated increasing the domestic birth rate by restricting abortions and repopularizing the “traditional family.” They have called for Germany to “reduce the propagated stigmatization of traditional gender roles.” The party has also been known to endorse anti-LGBTQ and antisemitic ideas, specifically advocating for a shift away from the German norm of feeling shame for the events of the Holocaust. 

Currently, the AfD holds 17 of the 205 seats available in Bavarian Landtag, or parliament, and 19 of the 137 seats in the Landtag of Hesse. The AfD’s surge in popularity since the last state elections in 2018 practically guarantee the party will gain seats in each state’s Landtag, but Germans supportive of the mainstream parties are anxious to know by how much.