Kremlin Annexations Prompt Fears of Nuclear Escalation

Russian President Vladimir Putin has escalated his nuclear rhetoric following his declared annexation of four Ukrainian regions (Wikimedia Commons).

On Friday, September 30th, Russian President Vladamir Putin staged a ceremony celebrating the annexation of four occupied territories in Ukraine. Western analysts fear this annexation could escalate to nuclear warfare. 

Putin announced the Annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.  These four partially occupied territories create a path between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. During the ceremony in the Kremlin's St. George's Hall, Putin declared that those living in the regions are “becoming [Russian] citizens forever.” The territory accounts for roughly 20 percent of Ukraine.

The West roundly denounced this annexation. Washington swiftly responded by announcing new, wide-ranging sanctions on prominent Russians, including sanctions targeting fourteen members of Russia’s military industrial complex, “for enabling Russia's sham referenda and attempt to annex sovereign Ukrainian territory.”

War analysts fear that Putin’s annexation could result in nuclear war.

Throughout the seven-month war, Putin has made several threats of using nuclear weapons if “the territorial integrity of [his] country is threatened.” Putin could use military resistance in the annexed region - which he now claims as Russian - as justification for escalation.

Putin has linked his efforts in Ukraine to Russian anti-Western sentiments. In his comments on Friday, Putin referred to the West as Satanic, and accused the United States of engaging in neo-colonialism.

Putin continued by saying that the American bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki created a “precedent” of using nuclear weapons to conduct war. 

Western countries, such as Canada and the United States, have already committed to sending more weapons to Ukraine, and President Volodymyr Zelensky has continually emphasized Ukraine’s request to join NATO. Russian media has predicted that this Western influence could urge the Kremlin to up the ante. 

Already, Russia has escalated its involvement in Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia aims to send 300,000 additional men to aid its war effort as part of its partial-mobilization plan. Observers attribute much of this mobilization to recent losses in territory and weaponry.

Jeffrey Edmonds, a Russia Expert for CNA and former CIA military analyst, told Business Insider that Russia is "really on a negative trajectory.” Russia’s losses have made Putin feel like “he needs to escalate — or at least rhetorically escalate and warn of nuclear weapons."

The White House is taking Putin’s threats seriously. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned of “catastrophic consequences” if Russia were to use nuclear weapons.

Putin’s rhetoric and escalation have also diminished the likelihood of a negotiated end to the war. President Zelensky said he will not hold negotiations with Putin, nor will Ukraine agree to conceding territory.