Compass Elections: Ireland Elections 101
Ireland voted in its early general election yesterday, February 8. As results come out, here is what you need to know:
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar had asked President Michael Higgins on January 14 to dissolve Parliament. Varadkar’s Fine Gael party had been in a minority government since the 2016 election, entering a confidence-and-supply arrangement with its traditional rival, Fianna Fáil; the arrangement was then extended to ensure stability during Brexit negotiations. A confidence-and-supply agreement is not a formal coalition but rather an agreement for a party to support the government in motions of no-confidence and budget votes. Following the loss of a number of by-elections in November, Fine Gael’s working majority appeared increasingly precarious, prompting Varadkar to declare an early election, hoping to capitalize on a successful Brexit negotiation process.
Ireland’s Political System
by Kyle Wang
The Irish parliament, or the Oireachtas, is a bicameral legislature. The lower house, the Dáil Éireann (Irish Assembly), is directly elected through proportional representation by single transferable vote. The upper house, Seanad Éireann, is not directly elected and is largely powerless. Ireland’s 39 constituencies are multi-member districts ranging from three to five seats for a total of 160 members. The taoiseach (prime minister) is elected by a majority of MPs and confirmed by the president. The Dáil has a maximum term of five years, with a general election held within 30 days of the dissolution of the parliament. With the Ceann Comhairle (speaker) automatically re-elected, 159 seats will be at play in the election.
Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar. (Flickr)
Fine Gael (“Family of the Irish”), Fianna Fáil (“Soldiers of Destiny/Ireland”), and Sinn Féin (“We Ourselves”) are currently the three largest parties in the Dáil. Before we get into their specific policies in the present, let us delve into their shared history first.
The original Sinn Fein was formed in 1905 and became the rallying point that united Irish republicans fighting for independence from Britain following the 1916 Easter Rising. When the Anglo-Irish Treaty, which established the Irish Free State as a dominion and partitioned Northern Ireland, was signed in 1921, the party split into a faction accepting the treaty and the partition and a faction opposing it, culminating in a brief civil war from 1922 to 1923 that ended with the victory of pro-treaty forces.
The pro-treaty faction formed a separate party, Cumann na nGaedheal (“Society of the Gaels”), whose leader, W. T. Cosgrave, became the first head of government of the Irish Free State. The anti-treaty faction, however, debated whether to participate in Parliament, culminating in another split in 1926, when the pragmatic faction formed the Fianna Fáil and entered the Dáil as the opposition in 1927.
Fianna Fáil gradually expanded its support under the leadership of Éamon de Valera (helped by the Great Depression), and it acquired a majority for the first time in 1933. In response, Cosgrave merged his party with two minor parties and created Fine Gael, a larger and more diverse party. From then on, the two parties became basically ideologically identical, with their support differentiated less from their specific policies than from party personalities and regional loyalties––best described as competing political machines.
Under de Valera, a new constitution was adopted in 1937 that created the position of taoiseach as the head of government. Fianna Fáil dominated Irish politics until 1973 (with de Valera remaining taoiseach until 1959, after which he served as president until his death in 1973), with the exception being 1948-51 and 1954-57, when John A. Costello of Fine Gael served as taoiseach. (The independence of Ireland was finally declared under Costello in 1948.) Following 1973, Irish politics became more competitive, with the control of the Dáil alternating between the two main parties every few years.
The remnant Sinn Féin on the other hand continued its policy of abstentionism, contending elections but boycotting the Dáil, until 1986 when the majority of the party led by Gerry Adams decided to finally enter parliamentary politics in Ireland. (It continues to boycott Britain’s Parliament to this day.)
Sinn Fein campaign poster from 1918. (Wikimedia Commons)
The Parties
Fine Gael: A center-right liberal-conservative party, the governing Fine Gael currently has the most seats in the Dáil, with 47 MPs. (Liberal conservatism refers to the predominant form of conservatism in Europe, defined by a support for liberal social policies and free-market and pro-business policies.) Its current leader, Leo Varadkar, is the first gay taoiseach and the first taoiseach of Indian heritage and came into the position following the resignation of the previous Fine Gael leader, Taoiseach Enda Kenny. Kenny had led the party to its best electoral showing in 2011 following the financial crisis caused by the Great Recession but managed to lose the majority as a result of voters’ perception of an unequal result of the recovery.
Fine Gael can be divided into two factions: a rural big-farmer oriented wing as originally envisioned by W. T. Cosgrave, which is more conservative in its socio-economic outlook, and an urban liberal one that currently dominates the party. The liberal wing can be traced back to the era of Taoiseach Garret FitzGerald (1981-82, 1982-87) as a result of the gradual liberalization and urbanization of Irish society in the 1960s and 1970s. Fine Gael had arguably ushered in a “quiet revolution” in Irish society as Varadkar once put it, with the legalization of same-sex marriage in 2015 and abortion in 2018 following constitutional referenda.
Fianna Fáil: A center-right party similar to Fine Gael, it is perhaps more populist and nationalist, with a greater support for government intervention in the economy. The main difference between the bases of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, if there is one, seems to be that the latter has more working-class support in the cities and small-farmer support in the countryside when compared to the middle-class electorate of Fine Gael. Fianna Fáil also generally has a greater preference for social spending, while Fine Gael favors cutting taxes more. Fianna Fáil currently has 45 seats, and is led by Micheál Martin, a former foreign minister who self-identifies as “slightly left-of-center.” Martin has been a consistent critic of Sinn Féin and has repeatedly ruled out possibly forming a coalition with it, though some of Fianna Fáil’s MPs oppose this decision.
Fianna Fáil historically had an image problem with corruption, from Charles Haughey (1979-81, 1982, 1987-92), labeled “Ireland’s Nixon” and was revealed to be massively indebted to wealthy businessmen, to Bertie Ahern (1997-2008), who was investigated for allegedly accepting payments by land developers in exchange for favorable zoning decisions. The near-bankruptcy of the country under Ahern’s successor, Brian Cowen (2008-11), certainly did not help matters. Its 57-seat loss in the 2011 election was the worst-ever in Irish politics, leading to jokes of an “epic Fail,” including by the Economist, but it recovered enough under Martin to produce a hung Dáil in 2016.
Micheál Martin, leader of the opposition Fianna Fáil party. (Wikimedia Commons)
Sinn Féin: The left-wing nationalist party possibly more known for its role in the politics of Northern Ireland, where its policy of abstentionism continues to this day, Sinn Fein has been associated for decades with the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA), the paramilitary group that sought to remove Britain from Northern Ireland. The Troubles, as the conflict was known, lasted from the late 1960s until the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, claiming more than 3,500 lives. Acting as the political wing of the IRA, Sinn Féin started seriously contesting elections under the so-called “Armalite and ballot box strategy.” (Armalite refers to the gun manufacturer known for its AR-15 rifles.) Sinn Féin currently has 22 seats and is led by Mary Louise McDonald, who succeeded Gerry Adams following his retirement. McDonald, unlike Adams, has no association with armed republicanism.
While Sinn Féin has become more mainstream thanks to its new, comprehensive social and economic policy platform, including a commitment to democratic methods and progressive politics, its past connection with the IRA has made it a controversial presence in Irish politics, with both major parties citing that as a reason for their refusal to bring Sinn Féin into coalition (in addition to its tax proposals). Despite this, in the latest polls before the election Sinn Féin experienced a surge, coming in first among all the parties at 25 percent, helped by its working-class and youth support. Yet the boost seemed to catch Sinn Féin by surprise as well: it only fielded 42 candidates for the election, way short of the majority threshold of 80.
Labour Party: A center-left party affiliated with the Irish Trades Union Congress and the historical coalition allies of Fine Gael, it has partnered with every Fine Gael government since 1948. It was founded in 1912. The Labour Party experienced its best results (37 seats) in 2011 along with Fine Gael, but then its worst defeat in 2016 as a result of its coalition with only seven seats. It is led by Brendan Howlin, and President Michael Higgins is a member of this party.
Green Party: An environmentalist party, it was founded in 1981. It was wiped out following its coalition with Fianna Fáil during the 2011 election but has since regained two seats. It probably has a greater presence in the European Parliament, elected to the body in 2019 along with other green parties across Europe in what was dubbed a “Green Wave.”
Solidarity-People Before Profit: An electoral alliance of three socialist parties, Solidarity, People Before Profit, and RISE (“Radical, Internationalist, Socialist, and Environmentalist”), currently has six seats in the Dáil.
Social Democrats: Formed in 2015 by former independents, it currently has two seats.
Aontú (“Unity”): An anti-abortion party with one MP who split away from Sinn Féin in 2018 following the latter’s support for the legalization of abortion.
Top Issues in the Campaign
by Kate Collins
1. Change
Change has been the central motif throughout the Irish election campaign. While a number of policy areas have dominated debates and manifestos, ultimately all of these issues boil down to a desire by voters for a fresh approach. Just a week into the campaign, an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll showed that 75 percent of voters favor a change in government, with more than half of respondents saying that Ireland is going in the wrong direction. Unsurprisingly the incumbent party, Fine Gael, has been hardest-hit by this sense of dissatisfaction among voters; after nine years in government, it is widely seen as ineffectual and stale, with just 20 percent in the same poll agreeing that Fine Gael has “made progress in important areas and deserves to be allowed [to] get on with the job of securing a better future.”
Other parties have attempted to capitalize on this appetite for change, though Fianna Fáil’s efforts have been somewhat hindered by the fact that it helped to support the minority Fine Gael government for the past few years under a confidence-and-supply agreement. Sinn Féin, meanwhile, has prospered from the ability to portray itself as offering a real break from the past, as not only was it not involved in the confidence-and-supply arrangement, but it has never been in government in the Republic of Ireland. The Greens have also been steadily building support by offering an alternative response to climate issues. The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll a week before the election reflected all of these developments, showing Sinn Féin at 25 percent, Fianna Fáil at 23 percent, Fine Gael at 20 percent, and the Greens at 8 percent.
The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI found a nation that wants change. (Twitter)
Fine Gael’s response has been two-pronged. Varadkar used a televised debate to argue that his government has actually been driving change in a number of areas, like the economy, social reform, and Brexit, declaring, “This is the kind of change I’ve been making happen, and I want to see it through.” The same day, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney said that the word “change” has been ambushed by certain parties with “no regard for the consequence or fallout.” It is no wonder, given all this, that the Irish Times has coined the term “the change election” to describe the campaign.
2. Health
The desire for change has manifested itself most strongly in the area of health, with 42 percent of people surveyed in an Ipsos MRBI poll saying that health would decide their vote. The Irish health system has long been the subject of criticism for its inefficiency, bureaucracy, and various scandals. 2019 saw the highest number of patients without beds in Irish hospitals––more than 100,000 people had to wait on trolleys after being admitted to overcrowded hospitals without enough beds. The vice president of the Irish Hospital Consultants Association, speaking to RTÉ in early January, described the government’s response to the crisis as being “like trying to put out a fire with a tea cup” and called on Varadkar to declare a national emergency. Long waiting lists for surgery and specialists are another major problem, with 215,000 children alone on waiting lists for healthcare services––of which a quarter have been waiting for more than a year. A scandal over the ballooning costs of building a new children’s hospital has also been ongoing since 2018: initially due to cost around €650 million ($711 million), the final price-tag is now predicted to be more than €2 billion ($2.18 billion), making it one of the most expensive buildings in the world.
Given these issues, it is not surprising that health is at the forefront of voters’ minds––and that all of the parties have laid out plans to tackle the various crises. All agree on the need to increase funding and staffing, both in hospitals and in primary care facilities; all back the creation of a fully national and universal healthcare system, Sláintecare, though some are more explicit in their support than others. Fianna Fáil has promised that anyone who waits for more than six months for a procedure will be able to apply for funding to access private health services. Clearly sensing the mood of the electorate on these issues, all of the parties have also proposed limiting or abolishing a range of patient charges.
Overall, despite the salience of the issue, little real differentiation has emerged between the parties on health––meaning that the election may well be decided by other issues after all.
3. Housing
Second on voters’ list of priorities is housing, with more than a third of voters identifying housing as the single issue most important to them. Ireland is in a housing crisis: supply of houses is low, while rents have sky-rocketed, with those in Dublin now on average higher than in Tokyo. A generation of 20- and 30-year-olds, nicknamed “generation rent,” see little real chance of ever being able to buy their own home––the vast majority are paying more than €1,000 ($1,094) in rent a month or are still living at home with their parents. This crucial swathe of the electorate will undoubtedly be thinking of housing when they cast their vote. Even more people are without any home at all: in December, the number of homeless people in Ireland reached an all-time high of 10,514. The day after the election was called, a homeless man in Dublin was seriously injured after the tent he was sleeping in was removed by heavy machinery tasked with tidying up the area. According to the Dublin Regional Homeless Executive, 222 homeless people died in Ireland over the last four years.
As with health, all of the parties agree on the need to tackle the crisis; their proposals differ significantly in scope and cost, however. All pledge to increase funding for homeless services, with Labour and the Social Democrats also promising to eliminate all rough-sleeping and long-term homelessness. The parties all plan to build more houses, though here the exact numbers vary. Fine Gael will add 60,000 social houses, Fianna Fáil will build 50,000, and Sinn Féin will deliver 60,000 social housing units, along with 30,000 affordable purchase homes, and 10,000 affordable rental homes. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s manifestos both promise an expansion of the Help to Buy scheme, which gives first-time buyers the ability to claim ten percent of their house deposit back as a tax rebate.
The sharpest divide between the parties on housing is over the possibility of a general rent freeze—Labour and Sinn Féin have committed to implementing such a measure, but Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both argue that such a move would be unconstitutional, leading the Greens to go so far as to call for a referendum to change the Constitution on this point.
4. Brexit
Fine Gael began the election campaign focused on the issue of its management of Brexit and has continued to try to do so in recent weeks, stressing that despite the government’s successful negotiation of a suitable exit deal, the process is far from over. Varadkar told RTÉ. that Brexit is a key election issue, and that “we are saying it's in Ireland's interest that the team who got you this far, should be allowed to finish this job.”
An event where a number of Fine Gael ministers brought the media to Dublin Port to inspect the new facilities built there in preparation for Brexit was decried as “the last great photo-op” and “pathetic stuff” by Michéal Martin, the leader of Fianna Fáil. Similarly controversial were comments made by the EU’s chief trade negotiator, Phil Hogan, on what he sees as widespread complacency in Ireland about the realities of Brexit and the task ahead. Hogan is a former Fine Gael MP and served as a minister in two previous Fine Gael governments, leading Martin to describe Hogan’s remarks as “a coded partisan intervention.”
Despite these developments, and in spite of Britain’s actual exit from the EU occurring just a week before polling day, Brexit has featured less in the campaign than one might expect (and less than the government would like). All indications are that it will ultimately decide few votes come election day.
5. The Economy
Closely intertwined with the issue of Brexit is that of the Irish economy. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have unveiled broadly similar economic visions, promising a degree of both tax cuts and increased spending. Fine Gael has emphasized how its plans will reduce the tax burden on the average worker, while Fianna Fáil has committed to slightly more spending than Fine Gael and also reducing the capital gains tax rate. By way of contrast to all this, Sinn Féin have offered a very different set of economic proposals, involving a €22 billion ($24 billion) increase in government spending over the next five years, to be funded mainly by higher taxes for businesses and the better-off.
All of the major parties have promised to at least defer a planned increase of one year in the state pension age; the proposed increase, due to take place in 2021, has emerged as an unexpected point of contention among older voters. All three of the main parties have traded verbal blows over their economic plans—Fianna Fáil has been attacked for its involvement in the large-scale economic collapse, which happened under its watch, while Varadkar termed Sinn Féin’s economic proposals “amadáin [fool] economics.” Of the smaller parties’ proposals, the Greens have promised a universal basic income as well as a carbon tax––the latter of which interestingly has been strongly and publicly opposed by one of its own candidates.
Conclusion
by Kyle Wang
In the final days before the election, controversy has erupted over comments made by Conor Murphy, the Sinn Féin minister of finance, on the murder of Paul Qunn in 2007. The 21-year-old Quinn was brutally beaten to death in a barn in County Monaghan, and his family has always believed that the IRA was responsible, though it was never conclusively proven. Murphy claimed that Quinn had been involved in criminality, a statement which he later retracted and apologized for, but the other parties were quick to seize on this opportunity to criticize Sinn Féin.
In addition, a literal storm, Storm Ciara, is predicted to hit the western counties of Ireland just as voters head to the polls on February 8, potentially decreasing turnout in those regions.
Those events introduce a number of uncertainties into the election, in which no party is expected to win an outright majority. Fianna Fáil certainly has a good chance of returning to power, but first it would need to find support from other parties to form a coalition. Another grand coalition with Fine Gael seems unlikely, while a “rainbow coalition” with the smaller parties could prove unstable. With Fianna Fail pledging to begin preparations for a possible referendum on the unification of the island, a once-remote possibility that seems far more likely following Brexit, this election is surely one to keep an eye on.