Azerbaijan and Russia Triumph in Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Deal

The streets of Baku erupt in celebration while Yerevan mourns following a peace deal brokered by Russia.(Wikimedia Commons)

Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia signed a peace deal on November 10, ending the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that has afflicted the region since late September. Under the deal, Azerbaijan will keep the territory that it gained during conflict as well as the Laitin Corridor region separating Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia, while Armenia will maintain control over parts of the ethnically Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

Angry at these negotiated terms, hundreds of Armenians protested in the streets following the outcome. The Armenian Prime Minister faced the brunt of the public’s wrath. Some people even stormed government buildings in Yerevan, chanting, “We won’t give up our land.”

At roughly the same time, Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku hosted crowds of thousands celebrating the military victory. At Martyr’s Alley, Azerbaijan’s fallen soldier memorial site, people danced to the national anthem cloaked in Azeri and Turkish flags. Young girls held a sign reading, “Tell the world we are coming home,” referring to the homeland their parents fled almost 30 years ago in what had previously been under de facto Armenian control.

The result of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict means increased regional influence for Russia. Moscow brokered the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and in the terms of the agreement, Russia will provide peacekeepers to Armenia proper as well as to parts of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Within hours of the accord, Russia deployed around 2,000 of these peacekeepers for a five-year tour in Armenia.

Turkey, which provided significant military aid to Azerbaijan during the conflict, also had a hand in the outcome. Moscow brokered the peace deal just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

While Ankara did not have a seat at the negotiating table, the reached agreements provided Turkey with two valuable takeaways: a showcase for Turkey’s position as a hegemon in the Caucasus and a direct land route across Azerbaijan, linking Turkey to the rest of Central Asia and China. “This trade route could transform the entire region and become the main staple of a peace settlement,” says Mikayil Jabbarov, Azerbaijan’s Economic Minister. 

While the ceasefire marks and end to bloodshed for now, some worry that it will not last. Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan Regional Studies Center says, “I’m as worried as much by what is not explained [in the peace agreement] as by what is. With no progress on the status of Karabakh, we are in a sense still stuck at square one.”