Ukrainian Separatists Win Big in Rebel Elections

Map of the self-proclaimed Donest People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic. Wikimedia Commons.

Separatists in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine have officially won control over the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) following elections in the two unrecognized breakaway regions on November 11.

According to Russian figures, the current head of state in the DPR, Denis Pushilin, obtained nearly 61 percent of the vote on 80 percent turnout, while his LPR counterpart, Leonid Pasechnik, secured 68 percent on 77 percent turnout. In respective parliamentary tallies, Peace to Luhansk Region received 73.18 percent of the vote in LPR and Donetsk Republic won 73 percent.

The Donbas has been Europe’s only active war zone since Russia’s February 2014 military incursion into Ukraine. Following the failure of the 2014 Minsk Protocol, Germany, France, Russia, Ukraine, and the separatists signed the Minsk II Accords, a 13-point peace plan that  stipulates local elections be held according to Ukrainian law and observed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Nonetheless, fighting has continued, and Moscow and Kiev have both accused each other of violating Minsk II provisions.

According to Russian media, observers from 20 countries monitored the elections in Donetsk and Luhansk for irregularities. Many members of the OSCE Permanent Council condemned the vote as “illegal” and “illegitimate.” Later, many observers were found to be wholly unqualified. Some lived and worked within the occupied territories and often had direct ties with the separatists prior to the ballot, which breaks the regions’ own rules on international observation.

In addition, authorities are accused of using underhanded methods to increase voter turnout and decrease opposition. This included promising supporters discounted groceries, phone credits, and pay raises for voting. Companies and state institutions were instructed to threaten those suspected of voting against the separatist candidates with job termination, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports. At least one potential opposition candidate in Luhansk was barred from registering.

As a result, the election was universally condemned by Ukraine and its Western allies. Ukrainian authorities called the process “illegal and manipulative” and refused to recognize the results. The State Department denounced the elections as an “illegitimate” tactic to “institutionalize [Russia’s] Donbas proxies.” The EU alleges that the separatist elections violate the Minsk II Accords and is expected to impose sanctions on five individuals related to the election on November 19, adding to the 155 Russians and Ukrainians already under sanctions.

One likely impact of these elections is the two regions’ closer integration with the Russian Federation. Following his victory in the DPR, Pushilin promised closer cultural, political, and economic ties with Russia, saying, “we [the DPR] have already learned to live without Ukraine.”

Since 2017, 14 Russian companies have been operating in the DPR. Russia is the DPR’s largest trade partner, buying over 87 percent of its exports. Additionally, Pasechnik says that Russian companies saved over 60,000 jobs in the LPR.

Both Western and Russian analysts believe organizing the elections could hint at Russian formal recognition of the two territories. According to the Kremlin, the election was called due to the murder of former DPR head Alexander Zakharchenko. However, the two heads of state had already been in office and approved by the Kremlin prior to the election, making the ballot redundant.

The election results could grant legitimacy to potential future recognition by Moscow. State newspaper Pravda writes that the Kremlin sympathizes with the two regions and that the high turnout indicates “the people of the Donbas have deserved their sovereignty.”

Russian recognition of the two breakaway states seems probable; Russian state media is already comparing the developments in Ukraine’s East to Abkhazia and South Ossetia (two de facto states in Georgia that declared independence with Russian support in 2008). Even if the two regions do not gain recognition, they will still be firmly tied to Russia politically and economically, making a peaceful resolution to the conflict under the Minsk II Accords even more difficult.