Latvian Coalition Talks Stalled, President Moves to Break Impasse

Latvian President Raimond Vējonis. Wikimedia Commons.

Latvians went to the polls on October 6 to choose their representatives in the next Saeima, the country’s parliament. After nearly a month of fruitless coalition talks, Latvian President Raimonds Vējonis announced in an interview with Latvian Public Radio on November 1 that he would move to end the impasse next week. Vējonis plans to meet once again with the three potential prime ministers before possibly nominating one of them.

Latvian Public Radio reports that out of the 100 seats in the thirteen Saeima, the center-left, pro-Russia Harmony party controls 23, down one seat from last session. Marking its first entry in the Saeima, the centrist New Conservative Party won 16 seats. Another recently founded party not represented in the prior Saeima, the anti-establishment, anti-corruption To Whom Belongs the State? party (KPV LV) also received 16 seats. The 13 seats won by the nationalist, center-right National Alliance party represent a loss for the party, which controlled 17 seats in the last Saeima. The left-leaning For Development/For! alliance of parties also won 13 seats, marking its first entry into parliament, Re:Baltica said. The Union of Greens and Farmers, which has formed a part of every government since its founding in 2002, received 11 seats, a notable decline from the last Saeima when the party controlled 21 seats. In last place sits the New Unity alliance of parties with eight seats.

Despite the Harmony’s plurality of seats in both the last and current Saeima, other parties have consistently ruled out joining a coalition with it. Its base consists mostly of Latvia’s Russian minority, who make up 26 percent of the population, and the party has struggled to attract ethnic Latvians, according to the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Harmony remains uncomfortably pro-Russian for many Latvians, as it has failed to denounce Russian aggression in Ukraine and supports making Russian the second official language.

The three parties who may end up leading the next government include For Development/For! with Artis Pabriks as prime minister, the New Conservative Party with Janis Bordans, and KPV LV with Aldis Gobzems, according to Latvian Public Radio. In addition to the cross-party ban on partnering with Harmony, the New Conservative party has also ruled out any coalition with the Union of Greens and Farmers, which picked both the current prime minister and president.

The Foreign Policy Research Institute writes that the shared ban against partnering with Harmony may fall apart, however. The mayor of Ventspils, Aivars Lembergs, an oligarch who holds significant influence in the Union of Farmers and Greens, allegedly remains sympathetic to Russia and Harmony. KPV LV also shares links to oligarchs who remain pro-Russian, and the party in its role as an anti-establishment force may be open to breaking the norm against joining a coalition with Harmony.

If the new governing coalition includes Harmony, Latvian foreign policy could drastically shift. Currently, the country remains strongly pro-Western and pro-NATO, but with Harmony in the government, Latvia could fall increasingly under Russian influence.