Looking Past 2018: Midterm Impacts on Western Europe & Canada

Leaders of NATO member-states at the 2018 NATO Summit (via North Atlantic Treaty Organization).

Democratic Party candidates won, as of publishing, 227 seats in the House of Representatives on November 6, taking control of the chamber for the first time in eight years. In the Senate, Republicans currently hold 51 seats, with two more expected victories, although one is too close to call as of publishing.

International Reactions

European and Canadian reaction to the midterm results varied widely as politicians across the spectrum responded to the new political structure in Washington, D.C. Right-wing Lega Party leader and Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini tweeted in support of the president, saying, “Congratulations to President Trump for the seats he won at the Senate and those he held in crucial states against everyone: left-wing journalists, actors, singers, directors, and pseudo-intellectuals.” Likewise, the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany party issued a statement praising Trump for keeping the Senate, which Republicans were widely expected to hold and attributed the results to his “economic and migration policy.”

EU officials viewed the Democratic victory more favorably. First Vice President of the European Commission Frans Timmermans tweeted, “Inspired by voters in the U.S. who chose hope over fear, civility over rudeness, inclusion over racism, equality over discrimination.”

“They stood up for their values. And so will we," Timmermans said, in reference to upcoming European Parliamentary elections in May.

EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici singled-out Trump in a tweet congratulating Democrats for winning the House “despite powerful Republican Gerrymandering. Donald Trump is right: ‘Tremendous success tonight.’”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau praised the record-setting number of women elected, calling it “obviously good news,” while also congratulating all candidates who put their names on the ballot. Trudeau told reporters on the way to a Liberal Party caucus meeting in Parliament that his government looks forward to working with the new members of Congress on “a broad range of issues, as we have in the past.”

Effects on Foreign Relations

The European political establishment largely does not expect any change in relations or in Trump’s foreign policy as a result of the midterms. Officials in Germany and other European Union states expressed doubt that the Democratic victory in the House will have any substantial impact on foreign relations.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas tweeted, “It would be a mistake to expect a course correction from Donald Trump now.” He further emphasized that while the U.S. remains Germany’s closest non-EU partner, Germany “will have to recalibrate and adjust our relationship with the USA," in order to ensure it remains mutually beneficial.

Germany’s transatlantic coordinator, Peter Beyer, echoed this sentiment in an interview with German public broadcaster ZDF. “I don't think we should expect too much from this outcome and the impact on us,” he said. His doubts are founded on the fact that the Senate traditionally has jurisdiction over more foreign policy than the House of Representatives. The Senate confirms ambassadors and members of the executive branch and ratifies treaties, placing international trade and NATO largely under its jurisdiction. Since Republicans maintained control of the Senate and are strongly aligned with Trump, Beyer does not expect any changes.

Nonetheless, some in Europe view the results as an opportunity to forge stronger ties with Congress, which could block policy changes by Trump that negatively affect Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s foreign policy spokesperson, Jürgen Hardt, said Germany needs to quickly arrange talks with incoming members of Congress to emphasize the “the importance of the transatlantic relationship.”

Vacant Ambassadorships

With a larger Senate majority, Trump and his party will be able to confirm his nominees more quickly, allowing the U.S. government to fill empty diplomatic posts in Europe and Trump to shape foreign policy further. Ambassadorships in Iceland, Ireland, and Sweden are vacant, as are the positions of Representative to the UN and Other International Organizations in Geneva, to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and to the UN Human Rights Council, among others.

Trump-nominated ambassadors have clashed with their host governments often in Europe by making statements outside of usual diplomatic norms and antagonizing their host countries. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell told Breitbart News his goal in Europe and Germany was to “empower” conservatives. This political statement shocked his German hosts and was soon followed by another statement in which Grenell seemed to threaten German companies engaged in commerce with Iran. He told them to “wind down operations immediately.”

Likewise, in the Netherlands, Ambassador Peter Hoekstra dismissed the notion he ever accused the nation of having “no-go zones” in its Muslim communities. Dutch media ridiculed and pilloried him after he dismissed the reports as “fake news,” was confronted by his Dutch interviewer with a video of his remarks, and then denied using the term “fake news” that he used minutes earlier in his interview. Hoekstra eventually apologized and visited a Muslim community.

Press conference by US President Donald Trump at the NATO Summit in Brussels (via North Atlantic Treaty Organization).

Support for NATO

Another notable impact of the Democratic takeover of the House is increased support, both vocally and legally, toward NATO, the transatlantic defense alliance. While Trump has attacked NATO and NATO members before for not spending enough on defense, a large bipartisan collection of lawmakers has consistently defended the alliance. In July, the House approved unanimously a resolution reaffirming U.S. support for NATO, which Speaker Paul Ryan called “indispensable.” The Senate passed a similar resolution by a 97-2 vote shortly afterwards.

These resolutions followed an attempt earlier in the year by a bipartisan group of 18 representatives to reaffirm formal U.S. support for NATO.

Trump has threatened in the past to retaliate against countries that fail to meet NATO defense-spending targets, including by reneging on Article 5, which guarantees that an attack on any NATO member state constitutes an attack on them all and mandates joint retaliation. “Our partners must meet their financial obligations,” Trump said in his first joint address to Congress.

Democratic congressional leaders strongly censured Trump’s remarks on NATO in a joint statement, saying, "President Trump's brazen insults and denigration of one of America's most steadfast allies, Germany, is an embarrassment. His behavior this morning is another profoundly disturbing signal that the President is more loyal to President Putin than to our NATO allies," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-12) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said.

Republican officials expressed more nuanced support of increased defense spending and NATO but not critical of Trump. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told reports he agreed with Trump on “the spending levels,” while also arguing that “NATO stronger is better for America” and that the U.S. should maintain its commitments.

An overwhelming majority of Democrats view NATO favorably, while only around half of Republicans do (via Gallup).

Bipartisan condemnation of Trump’s threat and continued support for NATO among elected officials suggest that any actions undertaken by Trump against the NATO alliance will be opposed and that the U.S. government will remain committed to NATO.

The Fate of the USMCA

With Democrats in charge of the House, they now play a key role in the approval of the USMCA trade agreement, NAFTA’s successor, and may seek to block it for ideological reasons or to deny Trump a substantial political victory. The trade agreement would have to pass both chambers of Congress, a process that will likely start in 2019 and take months.

Under legislation passed in 2015 called “fast track,” Trump can submit the USMCA to Congress for a simple vote without amendments or procedural delays. However, a Democratic House speaker could introduce a rule stripping the trade agreement of fast-track status, potentially preventing its passage entirely. This occured in 2008, when then-Speaker Pelosi prevented consideration of a Colombia free-trade agreement negotiated by then-President George W. Bush.

Democrats may push for additional provisions on labor rights and environmental standards, among other policy goals, in order to consent to the trade agreement, some experts have predicted. Democrats—and some Republicans—have already voiced skepticism of trade deals in the past out of concern that they threaten U.S. sovereignty or blue-collar jobs in their districts. For the USMCA, Democrats have already started calling for requiring higher labor standards and wages in the other countries, which unions like the AFL-CIO advocated for during the trade negotiations.

Canadian officials, for the most part, expect the agreement to be ratified by the United States. Trudeau and his staff expect Democrats to forgo a fight with Trump on the USMCA, a sentiment shared by some U.S. experts. A former U.S. diplomat currently working at Earnscliffe Strategy Group in Ottawa, Sarah Goldfeder, believes Democrats will focus on more domestic issues, saying, “Those candidates turn on all the spotlights into the United States. They might not look at issues that have broader implications like trade and border issues.”

Trudeau and his government plan to continue the strategy employed so far. Cabinet ministers and other government officials have travelled to the U.S. to meet with various officials at all levels of government and emphasize the importance of the U.S.-Canadian relationship. This tactic will be particularly important with the incoming Representatives and Senators and leads the Canadian government to believe the USMCA will be signed on November 30, as planned.

Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also purposefully negotiated for provisions that both parties could approve in case of divided government after the midterms.

Goldfeder and Canadian officials view political fighting between Trump and the Democrats as the biggest threat to the trade agreement. Trump may feel incentivized to refresh his threats to leave NAFTA without a replacement or impose tariffs to pressure Democrats into passing the trade agreement.

"If there's an environment where the administration doesn't think the package will pass then one of two things happen. Either they don't put the legislation up and we will live with the old NAFTA or the president — if he really wants to make this an election issue, and he will—will start the process of the United States leaving NAFTA," Goldfeder said.

Moving Forward

With votes still being counted and winners still being determined, the midterm elections have not yet officially concluded. It remains to be seen how, and whether, they will influence relations between the United States and its closest allies in Canada and Western Europe. It is possible that a Democratic House will influence the passage of USMCA, support for NATO, or other aspects of Trump’s foreign policy. Or, the House may focus on its more traditional domestic responsibilities, leaving much unchanged.